LBSU 49ers vs. Hawaii Warriors – NCAAB, February 27, 2021

By Dean McHugh in College Basketball
| February 26, 2021 3:47 pm PDT

You could be forgiven for thinking you were reading about the first-ever cross-sport matchup between an NFL team and an NBA team when you read the heading for this one, but I assure you it is a college basketball matchup. This is the first of two back-to-back meetings between these two Big West teams. Hawaii has the incentive of trying to reach third or fourth in the standings, while LBSU wants to avoid finishing last. LBSU is narrowly above bottom-placed Cal Poly, and a win here would certainly go a long way in helping them avoid that dreaded fate.

They should be optimistic as they have beaten the Warriors on the previous three occasions they have met. This includes winning the last two matches played in Hawaii.

Over the previous ten matchups between them, the 49ers have a much higher field goal percentage, but the Warriors have made almost double the number of three-pointers which has leveled things out.

Let’s look at the betting trends for each team, and then I will provide my 49ers vs. Warriors betting prediction.

49ers vs. Warriors Match Odds 

49ers +7-110
Warriors -7-110
49ers To Win+300
Warriors To Win-274
Over 145 Points-110
Under 145 Points-110 

The spread perhaps looks a point higher than anticipated but is nothing out of the ordinary. The points total is precisely what the two teams have combined to score over the previous ten games and will be challenging to take on either way.

49ers Analysis

Long Beach ended a run of four straight defeats by beating Cal Poly last time out. Before that game, a win seemed not too far away from the 49ers as in two of those four defeats; they did run their opponents close and force them into overtime.

They have been abysmal on the road this season and have only picked up one win from seven games. The 49ers have lost their last four away fixtures, but they did put up a good fight in three of them as they lost by three or less in those matches.

Here are the latest betting trends for LBSU:

  • LBSU is 2-4 against the spread in their last six games.
  • The total has gone over in ten of their previous 15 matches.
  • They have lost four of their last six matches.
  • The 49ers have won nine of their previous 13 games against the spread when facing Hawaii.
  • LBSU has won two-thirds of their last nine games against the Warriors.
  • They have only won one of their previous ten games on the road.
  • Five of the last six games between these two played in Hawaii have gone under the betting total.
  • The 49ers have lost five of their previous six games against the spread on a Saturday.

The above data highlights that the 49ers should be optimistic. They have a good record against the Warriors, but perhaps not too confident as they are playing poorly at present, especially on the road. It also suggests this will be a low-scoring game.

The 49ers have a decent offense that has shot reasonably well from the three-point range this season, so the Warriors will need to ensure that they get out to them quickly. They will need to ensure that they are disciplined in doing so as this is a tactic that many teams employ against the 49ers, which often leads to many points from the free-throw line for them.

Their defense is terrible and amongst the worst in the country, shipping 80 points per game on average.

They have a point per game difference of -7.7, the second-worst in the Conference this season.

They need to follow the example of their excellent blocking and try to make more steals per game. But of course, this needs to be done in a less zealous way than they are attempting now as they are giving away too many personal fouls.

Their offensive rebounding has been poor, but their defensive rebounding has been good. The difference is probably because they like to shoot from deep early. It doesn’t allow their offensive players to get in good positions to make many rebounds. This also means they don’t tend to make many assists per game. They also don’t make many assists because they are quite frankly terrible at passing and have made by far the most turnovers per game in the Big West.

Senior Isaiah Washington is having the best scoring season of his career, and they will need him to be on point tonight if they are to come away with the victory.

Michael Carter also has the game in him, but he hasn’t always shown enough of it this season. He certainly did in the second half against Cal Poly last time out, where he scored 23 second-half points and led his team to victory.

The 49ers have no players unavailable to feature in this one.

Warriors Analysis

Although Hawaii has lost three of their previous four games, they have shown plenty of Warrior spirit lately. They have proven how difficult they can be to be beaten by only losing one of their previous seven games in Regular time. However, in those seven games, they have gone into overtime on three occasions, and they lost the last two, so you have to wonder if all this game time is taking its toll. One of those overtime defeats came against the top of the Conference UC Santa Barbara. They trailed by 12 at halftime but fought back bravely before eventually losing 74-81.

They have a split record at home with five wins and five defeats from their ten games. The Warriors have lost their last two at home, but both losses came against UC Santa Barbara, so they can be forgiven for those. Before that, they had won their previous three, which is their best home run of form of the season.

Here are the latest betting trends for Hawaii:

  • The Warriors have only won one of their previous five games against the spread.
  • Four of their last five matches have gone over the betting total.
  • Hawaii is 4-8 in their previous 12 games.
  • Only one of their last six matches has failed to go under the points total.
  • Eight of their previous 11 home games have gone under the betting total.
  • The Warriors are 5-10 in February.
  • They have only won three of their previous 13 matches played on a Saturday.

Many of these stats are contradicting and, therefore, quite challenging to read or work out a pattern. The above suggests that the Warrior are in poor form, but I suspect that’s not entirely true given the opposition they have faced.

The Warriors have a substandard offense that hasn’t shot well from close range but has from distance. This suggests that they have the capabilities to shoot, but they aren’t working enough openings. This is backed up by the fact that they haven’t made many assists this season.

Casdon Jardine has been behind many of their three-pointers this season and most of their points in all truth. Here is a doing what he has done all season long for the Warriors.

They have averaged three fewer points at home this season which is slightly odd. However, that is balanced out because they are conceding four fewer points at home per game on average.

Their defense is decent and matches up well with the 49er’s offense, making for an intriguing contest. However, they have the edge in the rebounding stakes, which could tip the scales in their favor.

Much like their opponents, they don’t make many steals. They have the same low average per game. However, unlike their opponents, the Warriors blocking is non-existent. They haven’t done this very well for a while now, and it appears that they have given up trying. This does mean that they don’t make many fouls, however, which is a small bonus.

The Warriors have one absentee tonight, and that is Avea, who is unavailable due to personal reasons.

49ers vs. Warriors Betting Pick 

Pick
  • Warriors To Win
    -275

This is an exciting contest that has arguments for most plays. They both seem to be playing out a lot of close games lately, which could be no different. That narrows the options down to either the 49ers with the handicap or the Warriors straight up. I will take the Warriors to win straight up as they are a team I like, and I think they are better than their position in the standings suggest.

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