Lauren Murphy vs. Liliya Shakirova Betting Preview (UFC 254)

| October 21, 2020 2:28 pm PDT

Lauren Murphy faces Uzbekistan’s first-ever UFC female fighter, Liliya Shakirova, in an interesting women’s flyweight clash at UFC 254.

I’ll be covering the odds and best bets for the fight below, as well as revealing the fighter I believe will win this contest and why.

Murphy (13-4) was initially set to face Cynthia Calvillo, but she was forced to withdraw at late notice. That paved the way for Shakirova (8-1) to receive her call up to the UFC.

Murphy vs. Shakirova – Who Wins this Fight?

  • Lauren Murphy by KO/TKO

Although she is not exactly known as a knockout artist, I like Murphy to get the job done by stoppage on the night.

Shakirova is coming in on really short notice. Perhaps more importantly, she is facing a fighter that has been tempered in the fires of some of the 125-pound division’s best.

More on why I like “Lucky” in this fight a little later. First, let’s get stuck into the odds and best bets for Murphy vs. Shakirova.

Murphy vs. Shakirova Odds

Lauren Murphy to Win-250
Liliya Shakirova to Win+200

Murphy is -250 with Betway to win the fight over Shakirova, who comes in at +200.

I’m not a fan of Shakirova’s odds. I think that she is a little overpriced considering she has had little time to prepare for this one. There is absolutely no value in picking a last-minute debutant to beat one of the toughest female fighters out there.

Let’s check out the best bets for Murphy vs. Shakirova.

Murphy vs. Shakirova Best Bets

  • Murphy to Win (-250)
  • Murphy to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+350)

Murphy to Win (-250) is the sensible bet here.

We know the American is a grafter and a real workhorse. Finishes aren’t something that come along for her often, and both ladies in this fight are yet to find themselves at the end of one.

That being said, I like Murphy to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+350).

If you would prefer to take her for the KO/TKO and without the submission, you can always check out the top online sportsbooks to see what you can find.

Still, I think +350 is a very good price here. Murphy can earn a rare stoppage on the night, especially if Shakirova gasses out due to late notice and not fighting for 12 months previously.

Why Murphy Beats Shakirova

I’ll be blatantly honest here and say that Shakirova has a mountain to climb if she is to win this fight.

Murphy is just a big performance or two away from landing a title shot, and this will give her the impetus to go out there and be a butcher against a prospect that has nothing close to her experience.

Remember, Murphy TKOd Mara Romero Borella in August last year. She has wins over the dangerous striker Andrea Lee as well as the equally tough Roxanne Modafferi. Those last two fights came in 2020.

Shakirova, on the other hand, hasn’t fought in a year and has taken the fight on less than one week’s notice. That’s a disastrous combination for anyone looking to make their debut. I honestly can’t see her being up to scratch on the night.

We’re talking about fighting someone who is just a couple of chess moves away from a shot at Valentina Shevchenko’s flyweight title. A fighter that has worked her ass off to put together a very encouraging run that could change her life.

Is she going to blow it against a fighter that was beaten by Julia Borisova — who dropped four of her previous five fights — and has wins over, well, who knows?

No disrespect intended here. Murphy should not be troubled much in this fight.

Wrap Up

I’m backing Lauren Murphy to pick up a rare stoppage victory at UFC 254 on Saturday.

If you’re betting on the bouts, my UFC 254 best bets and sleepers piece should make for an interesting read. I cover three of the best bets as well as a further three value bets to look at. Give it a shot!

That’s all for now. Enjoy the fights!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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