LA-Monroe Warhawks vs. LA-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns – College Basketball, February 11, 2021

By Dean McHugh in College Basketball
| February 11, 2021 5:15 am PDT

This is a crucial game in the Sun Belt Conference, with both teams desperate to pick up the win for very different reasons. If the Warhawks are to avoid finishing last this season, they need to start picking up wins fast as they become detached from the rest of the teams. The Cajuns are joint top with Texas State, and with them facing their bitter rivals Texas Arlington tonight, they may be an opportunity for the Cajuns to take the outright lead.

The last four games between these two have been split equally, with both teams picking up two wins each. The home team on the day won all four of those matches, so this will be another hurdle for the Warhawks to overcome. They will also have to overcome a negative point per game difference of eight over the previous ten meetings.

Let’s look at the betting trends for each team, and then I will provide my Warhawks vs. Ragin Cajuns betting prediction.

Warhawks vs. Ragin Cajuns Odds

Warhawks (+10) -110
Ragin Cajuns (-10) -110
Warhawks To Win +420
Ragin Cajuns To Win -550
Over 136 Points -110
Under 136 Points -110

The spread looks about right for this game, and the final score is likely to fall a point or two on either side of this mark. The most interesting market is the total points one as it looks very low to me.

Warhawks News

The Warhawks are one of the country’s worst teams right now, having lost eight of their last nine games. However, they seldom lose by a massive margin, which suggests that they lack the confidence to see them over the line in games and perhaps some experience.

Their form on the road has been poor also as they have lost 80% of their games this season.

Here are the latest betting trends for LA-Monroe:

  • Five of their last six games have gone under the points total.
  • They have a good record against the Cajuns when betting against the spread. They have won eight of the previous 12 matches between them.
  • However, they have only won two of the last nine straight up against them.
  • The Warhawks have lost their previous seven games on the road.
  • They have also lost the last five games against the Cajuns away from home.
  • The total has gone under in five of their previous six games when playing against teams in the Sun Belt Conference.
  • They have an excellent record against the spread in February, having won six of their last seven games.

This shows what a mammoth task the Warhawks have on their hands tonight. It also suggests that we could see very few points tonight.

And it’s no wonder when you look at the Warhawks atrocious offense that averages only 63 points per game. Their rebounding has been a massive problem for them at both ends of the court.

The only area that they can match up against tonight’s opponents offensively is from three-point range, presumably because they have so much practice, often being behind in games. However, their field goal percentage doesn’t read well, and when you are not rebounding those misses, it can only spell trouble.

Their defense has been much better and needs to be on point tonight if they stand any chance of even getting close to the Cajuns. However, for a team that spends so much time without the ball, you would have thought that they would be making more blocks each game than they currently are making.

They have a point per game difference of -5.6, which is the worst in the Conference.

Russell Harrison has been the only stand out player for the Warhawks this season. He has undoubtedly done a lot of growing up recently, having become a father for the first time.

The Warhawks only have one absentee for this game, and that is their guard Powell who misses out.

Ragin Cajuns News

The Cajuns have hit a stumbling block in their pursuit to be crowned the Sun Belt Conference champions as they have lost their last two games back-to-back. The losses will have been of particular concern, given the opposition that they faced on those matches. This is the second time this has happened this season. The last time it happened, they went on to win the next five games in a row, and they will be hoping to start another run tonight.

They have been near perfect at home this season, winning nine of their 11 games. Coincidentally their last two home victories came against Arkansas State, to who they lost both games on the road recently. They also lost the game before those wins against AR-Little Rock, who are second from bottom in the standings.

Here are the latest betting trends for LA-Lafayette:

  • Five of their last six games have gone over the betting total.
  • They have only lost five of their previous 18 matches.
  • This record improves at home, where they have won 12 of their last 14 games.
  • The Cajuns have lost their last five games played in February against then spread.
  • They haven’t performed well as favorites recently, winning only one of their previous five games against the spread.

The trends suggest that they are winning plenty of games but not by many points. This is evident when you see that they have a point per game difference of only 1.8. It also suggests that there could be plenty of points on offer tonight.

They have a good offense, but when you break things down, it’s not perhaps as good as you might expect from a team that has the aspirations of winning a championship. Their rebounding is their most vital asset, which will be their key to victory tonight, coming up against a poor rebounding team like the Warhawks.

However, there is no point in making so many rebounds if you are going to be poor in possession and make as many turnovers as they are this season.

Their defense needs a lot of work, and it would arguably be one of the worst defenses in the country if it weren’t for their excellent rebounding.

They are averaging only five steals per game, which is the worst record in the Conference this season. However, they make many blocks each night, suggesting their defense prefers to stand off their opponents. However, there is a fine line between blocking and fouling, and the Cajuns often cross that line.

The Cajuns have a perfect record of 9-0 when they have reduced their opponents to a field goal percentage of 41% or less, so although they have a much better attack, it’s probably their defense that is going to win the game for them.

The Cajuns have their own high scoring Rusell, and that is Cedric Russell, who leads most of the rankings this season. The senior has taken the responsibility of being his teams’ talisman well this season and has thrived with the added pressure that it comes with.

Theo Akwuba also deserves a special mention as his performances this season have earned him the player of the week previously. Here are some of the highlights that helped him achieve this.

They have three players missing tonight, and they are Julien, Wesley, and Cadwell.

Warhawks vs. Ragin Cajuns Betting Pick

It’s going to be tough for the Warhawks, who haven’t won away from home against the Cajuns since 2015! However, I don’t think that the Cajuns are as good as their league position suggests, so I will take them on against the spread tonight.

Pick
  • Warhawks (+10)
    -110

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