Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees – MLB, June 24, 2021

The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees get things going early on Thursday. The two face off for an intense clash at Yankee Stadium, where the pinstripes hope to inch closer to second place in the loaded AL East.

KC is outside the AL playoff picture, but they get a big park upgrade in New York and still have life. The pitching isn’t elite on Thursday, with Brad Keller and Jameson Taillon facing off.

So, do bettors back one of these teams, or should they target the game total? Let’s break things down in Thursday’s Royals vs. Yankees betting pick and prediction.

KC will come in as significant underdogs, per Sportsbetting.ag. The Royals have won two straight, but they’re just 3-7 over their last 10 and 15-19 on the road.

The Royals are near the bottom of the league in power on the year, but the pop they do have could show up here. New York has gone just 5-5 over their last 10 games, but they still own a winning record (19-18) at their home park.

The more interesting bet that stands out is the game total, with the Over being the obvious play. KC’s offense gets some help in this park, and we know what the Yanks can do at the plate.

The pitching is suspect, too, so the Over immediately looks good to willing bettors. Is that the bet to target in this game, though? Let’s break this matchup down a bit further to find out.

Jameson Taillon is a decent bet to get his second win of the year here. His debut season with New York hasn’t been great, of course. He’s just 1-4 with a paltry 5.59 ERA right now.

It’s never easy to pitch at Yankee Stadium, but he’s actually been rock solid here (3.29 ERA in 8 games). His main issue has been keeping the long ball in check here, and he’s had most of his problems with left-handed bats.

That’s potentially all good for this matchup, as KC has a 24.7% collective whiff rate against right-handed hurlers, and they only have two lefties they can throw at Taillon. I don’t exactly trust him to shut them out there, but the matchup does absolutely favor him and the Yanks.

On the other side is Brad Keller, who has arguably lucked his way to six wins and brings an even worse 6.34 ERA to the table. Keller is an equal opportunity sad sack when it comes to giving up contact, as he doesn’t make many bats miss, and he also can have issues with walks.

After the starters, New York has the clear edge. They continue to have one of the nastiest bullpens in the majors, while the Royals are in the middle of the league, at best.

I like two bets in this one. New York looks like a fine try at home against an inferior team. Taillon has largely pitched well at Yankee Stadium, the Royals lack reliable power, and Brad Keller’s strengths are far from a lock to keep New York’s bats silenced.

The Yankees at -185 feels like a fine bet, but for this game, it’s secondary.

The best bet here is the Over. It’s pretty palatable for a game at Yankee Stadium, especially when you’re dealing with a guy in Keller that doesn’t get Ks, walks too many batters, and gives up loads of contact.

New York does whiff, but they need to start getting wins, which could easily be a blow-up spot. On the other side, the Royals have a lot of potential in their lineup, and the park upgrade is obvious.

Anytime you get at least one powerful offense, suspect pitching, and a hitter’s park, the Over is at risk. This game features all three, so I’m hammering the Over at -110 at the top MLB betting sites.