Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins – NFL Week 14, 2020
The reigning Super Bowl champs the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Miami to face a Dolphins team that is on a roll and building real momentum as the season picks up pace.
Both teams have only lost one from their last eight games so there isn’t much to choose between them on recent form.
Over the last six head to head games the honours are split, however, the Chiefs have won the last two. Can they make it three in a row?
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Odds
Despite the identical recent records the Chiefs are overwhelming favourites to win this one. The odds don’t offer much value at all and the optimists among us would definitely see value in taking them on.
The Chiefs have continued this season in the same fashion as they finished the last and that’s with winning. They have won their last seven in a row, albeit the last four have been fairly close contests (wins of six, three, four and two). Away from home, they have a perfect six for six record.
They are joint top of the AFC division with the Steelers after Pittsburgh lost to Washington last time out. The only blemish on the Chiefs record this season came against the Raiders back in October.
They are averaging just over 30 points per game this season and almost over 100 yards gained more per game than their opponents which is a frightening prospect for the Dolphins to face.
That, of course, is down to star man Patrick Mahomes who easily leads the passing yards standings this season. But he can’t do everything on his own and he is backed up by not one, but two of the best receivers in the game in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
One performer who has probably gone under the radar a little is Tyrann Mathieu (a.k.a the Honey Badger) who if third on the most interceptions standings this year. His interceptions are allowing the likes of Mahomes, Kelce and Hill to excel. The Chiefs are currently third for most interceptions this season behind the Steelers and the Patriots.
Despite their dominance over the past couple of seasons they would like to improve on their rushing so yards conceded having given up over 1500 yards this year.
The Dolphins recent good run has catapulted them into playoff contentions. If they were to qualify it would be the first time in four years that they had done so.
Miami’s last three matches have all been low scoring affairs against teams ranked towards the bottom of the table. With that said it wasn’t plain sailing for them as they slipped up against the Broncos in a game which although they started well they never quite got into their grove and lost.
The Dolphins have won their last four home matches in a row but apart from the Rams they haven’t really beaten anyone of note.
Miami have a mean defence having only conceded an average of 17 points per game (the second-lowest in the NFL) and they will need to be resolute against Kansas. They also have the fourth-lowest completion rate against them in the league as their blitz style football really is hard to breakdown.
A lot has been made of the quarterback matchup between Mahomes and the Dolphins first-round draft pick Tua Tagovailoa. Even this early stage of Tagovailoa’s career some are naming this matchup as the King versus the heir to the throne. A lot may be getting carried with the young man’s impressive start but he has backed it up after being nominated for the rookie of the year award.
Tagovailoa is likely to see plenty of the ball if Xavien Howard has anything to do with it as he leads the league in interceptions so far this season.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Pick
It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs given their dominance over the past couple of seasons but they are certainly too short-priced in this game. Because this could potentially be a tight game I’m going for under the total points.
The Dolphins have turned their home field into somewhat of a fortress. The last four games played here have featured under 50 points, as have the last five head to head matches played here against the Chiefs.
Under 50.5 Points-110