Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns Betting Preview for UFC 258

| February 5, 2021 8:57 am PDT

Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns headlines UFC 258 on Saturday, February 13, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.

Usman is making the fourth defense of his UFC welterweight crown against the explosive Brazilian, and he won’t be sleeping on his former teammate.

Odds for Usman vs. Burns might be heavily in favor of another successful title defense. The “Nigerian Nightmare” is a significant betting favorite for UFC 258’s bill-topper, but by no means is this bout a foregone conclusion.

I have handpicked a few of the best bets for Usman vs. Burns, and I’ll be sharing these with you today.

But before we get there, let’s cover my prediction for what could be a welterweight classic.

Who Wins the Usman vs. Burns Fight?

  • Kamaru Usman by Decision

M prediction for Usman vs. Burns at UFC 258 is a unanimous decision win for the champ.

I like Burns as a fighter, but Usman is one of the most impressive athletes on the UFC roster. Stylistically, he is bad news for “Durinho,” and I think this will be evident from pretty early on in the fight.

I’ll explain the reasoning behind why I’m backing the champ a little later. I think you should take a look at the latest odds for Usman vs. Burns before we go any further.

Usman vs. Burns Odds

Kamaru Usman to Win-275
Gilbert Burns to Win+215

The betting line for Usman vs. Burns at MyBookie has leaned towards the champ since odds were released back in January.

Usman’s odds to win opened at -225, and as you can see above, he is now -275. Burns opened at +190 to win and now finds himself as the +215 dog.

I’m expecting a little more movement from now until fight night. So, if you’re wagering real money on this welterweight title fight, take Usman now.

If not, wait a little longer if you want better odds for Burns.

Best Bets for Usman vs. Burns

  • Usman to Win -275
  • Fight to Go the Distance -125
  • Usman to Win by Unanimous Decision +162

These are the best Usman vs. Burns bets to target ahead of February 13.

Usman to win at -275 is the safe bet. The dominant champion should have far too much in the tank for Durinho to handle, but I do think the fight will go the distance.

If the Brazilian does reach the scorecards, odds of -125 are effectively a good chance of getting better odds for UFC 258’s main event. I don’t see Usman being stopped by Burns, who in turn should be able to withstand his opponent’s shots and will not be submitted.

You can get odds of +162 at the top UFC betting sites for Usman to win by unanimous decision. I like this bet, especially as nine of his twelve UFC wins have ended this way, including four from his last five championship fights/five-round main events.

Why Usman Beats Burns

Usman stands at 6’0″ to Burns at 5’10” and holds a five-inch reach advantage at 76″.

The former teammates will know each other’s attributes and approach very well. I think there is more to be said for Usman’s strengths and weaknesses are clear at this point, but Durinho’s game is a little tougher to break down. He has evolved as a fighter, placing more emphasis on his striking and staying power.

Even so, there is little that should come as a surprise to Usman.

Yes, Burns has explosive power. His submission game is dangerous. But he’s taking on one of the most dominant champions the UFC has ever had, in my opinion, and an absolute cardio machine that has consistently negated the threats of fighters of all styles in the past.

I’m not saying that Burns brings nothing new, but Usman will control this fight from start to finish.

My pick for Usman vs. Burns hasn’t changed since this fight was first set and subsequently postponed in 2020. I’m taking Usman to win by unanimous decision.

More UFC Betting Advice

Usman vs. Burns should be a good fight at UFC 258, but ultimately one that goes in favor of the king of the 170-pound division.

If you’re new to gambling real money on UFC fights or don’t know much about Usman, I’ll leave you with some content that will help to up your game. There are more fights in February 2021 to look forward to, so I’ll add a piece detailing the ones to bet on this month.

Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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