Predictions for Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2 With Top Picks (UFC 268)

| November 1, 2021 10:14 am PDT

I’ve put together a preview for betting on the Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington rematch this Saturday, November 6, at Madison Square Garden. 

To say I’m excited for this one ranks up there with the greatest understatements of the century so far.

I’ll be looking over the Usman vs. Covington 2 odds and giving you my take on the biggest grudge match in the UFC. I’ll be discussing where the value is and providing you with a breakdown of what will matter in this fight. 

If you’re here for predictions and betting picks for the Usman vs. Covington rematch, I have you covered on both fronts. Additionally, I’ll be hitting you with more helpful advice for wagering on the fight that should also help. 

Let’s start with the odds, courtesy of Bovada.

Latest Odds for Usman vs. Covington 2

Kamaru Usman-300
Colby Covington+235

Usman’s odds to beat Covington at UFC 268 are -300. 

Do I love these odds? Not really. Are they right? Absolutely.

There is no doubt that Usman is a monster. Judging by his back-to-back stoppage wins over Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal this year alone, he is lightyears ahead of almost everyone at 170-pounds.

Everyone apart from his opponent this Saturday.

Covington’s odds to beat Usman are appealing at +235. The value here is pretty good, considering that he is the only fighter that can viably put it up to the incumbent UFC welterweight champion. 

In their first bout back in December 2019, Covington was stopped with just 50 seconds of the fight left. If he had hung on, he very well might have ended up with the win. 

Although I’m arguably the biggest Usman fanboy there is, Covington is no joke. He’s an excellent fighter with sublime wrestling and a gas tank that won’t quit. 

The value is with Covington if you’re betting on the line. But I’ll be getting to more bets for Usman vs. Covington 2 later, so hold off on your wagers for now.

Usman vs. Covington 2 Predictions

  • Winner: Kamaru Usman
  • Method of Victory: Decision

I’ve thought long and hard about my predictions for Usman vs. Covington 2.

In conclusion, how can you bet against the pound-for-pound monster that is Usman?

His improvements as a fighter over the past couple of years have been nothing short of phenomenal.

Having been reliant on his wrestling and cardio, for the most part, the guy is now knocking out guys like Burns and Masvidal. 

Although some are expecting another knockout, I believe we’ll see this one go the distance. Covington will switch up his game plan this time around and certainly won’t be looking to stand and trade with the “Nigerian Nightmare.”

This could get interesting.

Breakdown of Usman vs. Covington 2

Trevor Whitman has turned a dangerous fighter in Kamaru Usman into a guy that is in the welterweight GOAT discussion.

Usman is taking souls out there and would probably be aiming for the light heavyweight title if not for his friend, Israel Adesanya, owning that strap.

All of the champ’s attention will be on Covington this Saturday. It’s the toughest matchup there is for the Nigerian-born star, and anything less than a prime performance could see him lose his belt. That’s how good Colby is. 

Takedown Average 3.27
Takedown Accuracy 48%
Takedown Defense 100%
Significant Strikes LPM 4.63
Striking Accuracy 54%
Significant Strikes APM 2.40
Striking Defense 57%
Submission Average 0.1

The first bout was contested on the feet, with both men reluctant to use their wrestling. It turned out to be the right move for Usman, who had the better hands.

This time around, there is no question that he is the best striker of the pair, which means that we should see a more wrestling-oriented contest. 

Still, I believe things will be closely contested, with the challenger looking for takedowns to negate the champ’s power.

But just look at Usman’s 100% takedown defense. If Colby is to take his man down, it will be crazy to watch. Although, if anyone can do it, he can.

It would be a very dangerous game for Usman to take a similar game plan as the Burns and Masvidal fights, given his opponent’s grappling prowess. Both men will be tentative to go all out from the first horn and will likely look to increase their output as the fight progresses. 

Although my fight prediction for the Usman vs. Covington rematch favors the champ, to rule Covington out here would be very silly.

Top Bets for Usman vs. Covington 2

  • Smart Bet: Fight Ends Over 2.5 Rounds (-185)
  • Top Pick: Usman by Decision (+190)
  • Best Value Bet: Covington by Decision (+500)

You can find a ton of props for Usman vs. Covington 2 on the best online betting sites

From smart picks to wild bets, you’ll find all kinds of wagers for UFC 268’s main event to choose from. 

Given the nature of the fight, I wouldn’t recommend going all-in on either fighter. Instead, I’d pick one or two top bets for Usman vs. Covington, as well as a value wager that could also pay off. 

  • The smart bet is for the fight to go past the halfway mark. 
  • The likeliest scenario is for Usman to win by decision. 
  • Covington to win on the cards is excellent value at +500.

You should always be looking at how to find value in betting odds on any fight. In this scenario, Covington by decision makes the best sense as he has no stopping power and hasn’t earned a submission win in over five years.

More Advice for Betting on Usman-Covington 2

That’s pretty much everything I have to add for anyone wagering on the Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington rematch. 

But before I go, make sure to check out the following piece. It contains a more in-depth look at both fighters, expanding on what they bring to this bout.

The odds have changed, so you can ignore them, but the rest of the material is valuable if you’re gambling on the grudge match at UFC 268. 

Good luck!

Odds and Breakdown for the Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington Rematch

That feeling when you’re looking for the odds for Kamaru Usman’s next fight, and see Colby Covington’s name next to him. Of course, I have been looking forward to this rematch ever since the end of their first encounter back in December...

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Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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