Joe Smith Jr. vs. Maxim Vlasov – UFC, April 10, 2021

| April 9, 2021 9:57 am PDT

East meets West this Saturday, April 10, with Joe Smith Jr. vs. Maxim Vlasov going down for the WBO light heavyweight title.

Although initially set for February 13 in Las Vegas, the bout now goes ahead at Osage Casino, Tulsa, Oklahoma. Great news to anyone looking to bet on Smith vs. Vlasov this weekend.

As it goes, my initial predictions and betting pick for Smith vs. Vlasov were in favor of the American. But with a little more prep time, you have to consider if taking a gamble on Vlasov this time could be worth it.

I’ll take you through all you need to know for this light heavyweight champion bout. That means breaking down the latest odds for Smith vs. Vlasov online, the top bets for the fight, and, of course, my predictions and pick.

Struggling with who wins the fight? Let’s begin with my take.

Who Wins Between Smith and Vlasov?

  • Joe Smith Jr. by Decision 

Straight out the gate, I’m taking Joe Smith to win by decision.

This was my Smith vs. Vlasov prediction back in February, and I don’t see any reason to change things up. 

Smith is looking to avoid a third loss in six fights, having been beaten by Dmitry Bivol and Sullivan Barrera in 2017 and 2019, respectively. Against Vlasov, he’ll have his work cut out, but I see the blue-collar boxing hero passing the test. 

I’ll expand on my thoughts a little later. First, here are the odds for Smith vs. Vlasov.

Latest Odds for Smith vs. Vlasov

Joe Smith Jr. to Win-330
Dmitry Vlasov to Win+255

Smith’s odds to beat Vlasov look good at MyBookie

If you were betting on Smith to beat Vlasov back in February, the native of Long Island was -355. This represents a moderate change in odds, and I don’t see them getting much shorter by fight night. 

I expect “The Irish Bomber” to close at around -400 before his ring walk. So, if you’re looking to gamble real money on Smith winning the title, get on him now. 

Vlasov is +255 to win, down from +280 in February. 

Those looking for betting value in the Smith vs. Vlasov fight will certainly be considering a punt on “The Kill.” He’s a tough competitor with a rock-solid chin and will undoubtedly make life hard for Smith on the night. 

With that said, he is coming into this fight a little rusty…

Top Bets for Smith vs. Vlasov

Smith to Win-330
Smith to Win by Decision/Technical Decision+220
Smith Jr. Wins in Round 11+2500

Betting on Smith to beat Vlasov? How about taking him for the win on the moneyline?

The American should be the better-conditioned fighter heading into this one. Not only is he the more active of the two, but Vlasov’s positive test back in February could hint at him coming in at even worse nick on fight night.

Therefore, those making predictions for Smith to win by decision might be on the right track. 

Finally, if you are looking to make money on your bets for Smith vs. Vlasov, look at a win for the American in Rounds 10, 11, or 12. This will be the period where Vlasov will show true signs of ring rust and fatigue, which could open the door for Smith to hand the Russian his first-ever stoppage loss. 

If you need any inspiration for this bet, remember that Smith beat Eleider Alvarez in August 2020 by KO.

It was the first time the Colombian had been stopped in his career.

Why Smith Beats Vlasov

My predictions and pick for Smith vs. Vlasov have remained the same as they were in February, but I feel even more confident of a win for the American.

The combination of ring rust and recovery from illness will not help The Kill one bit. He will be on the back foot from the start, with Smith looking to get right in Vlasov’s face from the first bell. Behind that jab, The Irish Bomber will be able to rack up a good lead that takes him into the middle stages of the fight.

From here, it’s all about upping the tempo and making Vlasov work harder than he probably ever has. From the center of the ring, against a guy that carries serious power like Smith, Vlasov will have to work his nuts off to avoid being pushed back and pummelled with body shots.

Few fighters in the world can come back to the ring following an extensive period of inactivity and hit the ground running, especially in a title fight. Vlasov last fought in November 2018 and was hospitalized less than two months ago.

Therefore, if you’re betting on Vlasov beating Smith, all the best to you, but for me, I’m going to have to stick with Smith by decision.

Ready to Bet on Smith vs. Vlasov?

My Joe Smith Jr. vs. Maxim Vlasov pick is a decision win for the American.

I would not be surprised to see Vlasov stopped, but he is seriously tough and should have what it takes to go the distance. But on the night, anything can happen.

If you’re keen on getting your bets down, you can head over to the best boxing sportsbooks online and hopefully make a nice profit from your wagers. There are some great Smith vs. Vlasov prop bets doing the rounds right now, so you might want to take a look at those, too.

Finally, you can find more boxing matches to bet on this month below.

Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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