Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori Betting Preview – UFC Fight Night, December 5, 2020
Jack Hermansson was meant to be fighting Darren Till this Saturday, December 5.
Till pulled out, and Kevin Holland stepped in. Then Holland pulled out, with Marvin Vettori taking his place. And while I wouldn’t bet on Hermansson vs. Vettori being pulled, I’m confident that we have ourselves a fight.
Hermansson’s odds to beat Vettori are, well, interesting, to say the least. The bookies believe the #4 ranked UFC middleweight will be seriously tested by the #13 ranked Italian. Despite everything else, Vettori comes into this scrap as the favorite.
Now, I’ll be getting to the odds, best bets, and general betting tips for Hermansson vs. Vettori a little later. But as usual, I’m going to give my prediction for the winner of the main event and work my way down.
So, make yourself comfortable, and I’ll break down everything you need to know about betting on Hermansson vs. Vettori.
Let’s do it!
Hermansson vs. Vettori – Who Wins This Fight?
- Jack Hermansson by Submission
Both of these guys are talented grapplers.
Hermansson is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, while Vettori has a brown belt. Between them, they have 15 submissions in professional MMA.
But when it comes to this fight, the difference might be found in how both men adapt to each other on the feet. Neither man is a superb striker, but both are more than capable of dishing out punishment. I feel that Hermansson, however, will be able to mix things up enough to take the win.
I’ll explain my thoughts in more detail after we look at the odds for Hermansson vs. Vettori, as well as the best bets for the fight.
Hermansson vs. Vettori Odds
As you can see, the line for Hermansson vs. Vettori is pretty close.
The Swede opened at +140 before coming down a little. I’d put the change in the odds down to bettors comparing tangibles such as where both men stand in the official UFC middleweight rankings, their previous opponents, and their biggest wins to date.
If we’re doing that, then it’s understandable that Hermansson is getting a lot of love here. Not only is he nine places ahead of Vettori in the rankings, but he is also coming off an impressive submission victory over Kelvin Gastelum in July.
Hermansson is 1-5 from his last six fights. His only loss came to Jared Cannonier, who had three straight knockouts before being beaten by the former divisional champion, Robert Whittaker.
I like Vettori and can see why the bookmakers have made him a slight favorite ahead of Saturday’s bout.
The Italian’s only loss from his last six fights came against the incumbent champ, Israel Adesanya. He is riding a three-fight win streak with his own impressive submission win over Karl Roberson.
Still, I think Hermansson is going to be an exceptionally tough fight for “The Italian Dream.” In terms of a matchup, this is a huge test for Vettori.
Let’s see how my thoughts translate when picking the best bets for this fight.
Best Bets for Hermansson vs. Vettori
- Hermansson to Win +105
- Hermansson to Win by Submission
- Vettori to Win
The odds for Hermansson to win +105 are more than good enough to take for this one.
Can “The Joker” find a way to stave off the attacking threat of Vettori for five rounds? Perhaps he can submit him in less than five minutes? Maybe there is a knockout on the cards for the 32-year-old?
If you take this bet, you are covered for a Hermansson win. That means any win at all, in any circumstance. And that’s a good bet.
Hermansson to Win by Submission is the bet that matches how I see the fight ending.
The odds are not available for this just yet, but I expect Hermansson vs. Vettori props and specials to be released a couple of days out from the fight.
If you’re feeling his chances of taking Vettori’s back, this is the bet for you. But check the odds first and make sure that the betting value is worth the additional risk.
At -135, Vettori to Win is a solid bet for those backing the Italian.
I have backed Vettori in the past. Most recently, I recommended Vettori to submit Roberson at +500 in June. It took the 27-year-old less than one round to pull off a rear-naked choke and make those of you who took the bet very happy indeed.
This time around, I see things going the other way. I believe Vettori will be on the wrong end of a submission.
Jack Hermansson was on camera when he got the call about his second opponent change for #UFCVegas16— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 29, 2020
He accepted the Marvin Vettori fight without hesitation ? (via @jackthejokermma) pic.twitter.com/zM9hGNiuuw
Why Hermansson Beats Vettori
I wouldn’t call Hermansson the most extraordinary technician in the UFC. But what he does well, he does very, very well.
Few of his peers have been able to expose weaknesses in Hermansson’s game since he hooked up with the UFC in 2016. To be more precise, he has lost three fights from 11. He was submitted by Cesar Ferreira and knocked out by both Thiago Santos and Jared Cannonier. Nothing to be ashamed of, of course.
But the latter two, in particular, share abnormal power. Hermansson has shown a tendency to get a little careless on the feet and has paid the price for it. Still, I’m not convinced that Vettori has the power to finish him.
Instead, I see Hermansson making the most of his gangly 77.5” reach and keeping the Italian out of range. I think there will be grappling exchanges where he must come out on top, and I believe he will.
Now, given Vettori’s strength, grappling skills, and durability, a decision win might make sense to a lot of analysts. However, I think we will see Hermansson take advantage of Vettori’s inexperience in the championship rounds and land a late submission.
And That’s All For Now
My prediction for Saturday night’s main event is Hermansson to beat Vettori by submission in the fifth round.
I like Vettori. I think he’ll make this a great fight. But Hermansson knows the importance of getting the win here, and I can see him playing to his strengths.
You can find more betting material for UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori on the picks section of our site. I’ll be hitting you with predictions for all winners, some good bets, and much more.
Odds and markets can be found over at the best UFC betting sites. Just remember to shop around for the best odds on those sites to make sure you’re getting the best bang for your buck.
That’s all for now. But don’t forget, some mega fights are heading our way over the next couple of months. I’ll leave you with some content for these bouts below.
Good luck with your bets!