Italy vs. Poland – Nations League, November 15, 2020

This is one of the closer Nations League groups with all four sides still mathematically able to finish top of the table.

This game will go a long way to determining who has more of a chance going into the final match day however – and that should make for an exciting encounter.

I understand MyBookie making Italy to win this game at home on Sunday. But I am a little surprised about the gap between the prices.

Poland is top of the group going into this fixture and has looked impressive against the Netherlands and Bosnia, as well as Italy in the reverse fixture earlier in the year.

It is fair to say that Italy has returned to the top level after the humiliation of missing out on the World Cup in Russia in 2018. Roberto Mancini was installed as head coach after the failure of that campaign and has not lost a game since October 2018. All ten Euro 2020 qualifying games ended in victories and now there has been one win and three draws so far in the Nations League.

There is uncertainty about the availability of a number of players – and Mancini himself – due to some positive coronavirus tests but this should still be a strong Italy squad with a huge amount of self-belief. There is the added incentive of a positive result virtually assuring Italy as a top seed for next month’s World Cup qualifying draw. So the home side should put on a good display.

Poland will also be up for this one, however. There is a real chance that Jerzy Brzeczek’s side could finish top of this group – a huge achievement considering the caliber of opposition. Poland has tended to be the ‘nearly men’ when it comes to international soccer, so a Nations League finals appearance would go a long way to changing that perception.

Poland’s main threat should once again be Robert Lewandowski, even though he missed the 2-0 win against Ukraine in a friendly on Wednesday. He wasn’t able to get past a stubborn Italy defense in Gdansk last month either and has only scored two Nations League goals after missing the first two fixtures in the group.

I feel that a draw might suit both teams in what is a very busy international break. A point away from home for Poland would be an achievement and keep it top of the group.

While Italy would take that as far as seeding for the World Cup qualifying campaign goes – and a belief that it can beat Bosnia in the final game and overtake Poland at the top the group, who has a tough fixture against the Netherlands to navigate coming up next.