Italy vs. England – Euro 2020 Final

| July 9, 2021 5:29 am PDT

After a month of soccer that has seen some incredible goals, shock upsets, and near-tragedy, the delayed Euro 2020 draws to a close on Sunday at Wembley Stadium as Italy takes on England for the right to be crowned champions of Europe.

The England players will have the majority of the home crowd behind them as they attempt to win a first major international trophy for 55 years. But Italy has captivated everyone since the opening day of the tournament and will feel as though it is time for the Azzurri to take center stage again.

Read on to discover how I think the final of Euro 2020 will go – and for my all-important Italy vs. England betting pick.

Is Football Coming Home for England?

It won’t have escaped anyone’s attention that England fans believe “football is coming home.” A convincing group stage, victory over old rival Germany, a thrashing of Ukraine, and a comeback win in extra time over Denmark suggests that they might just have a point.

Gareth Southgate has continued to stand by his convictions throughout the tournament, refusing to select players just because the media and the fans want him to.

Instead, he has picked teams specifically to beat opponents and has used substitutions wisely to kill off games.

A controversial penalty decision made all the difference against Denmark in the semifinal. Now England is one game away from a second major trophy – and first-ever European Championship win. Southgate is likely to stick with the same starting eleven again, with Saka given another chance to run at Italy’s potential weak link in backup left-back Emerson.

Kane has now started to score goals after a lean group stage and will be a danger for Italy, with Sterling also sure to fancy a run at an aging backline.

Can Italy Spoil the Hometown Party and Win Euro 2020?

Since the very first day of Euro 2020, when Italy bamboozled a shell-shocked Turkey on the way to a 3-0 win, Roberto Mancini’s side has looked to be on an unstoppable course to the final. Now, after beating possession kings Spain in the semifinal, it just has to beat England in its own national stadium to win its second European Championship.

The Azzurri has had a tougher route to the final after topping a group in which it won all three games and didn’t concede a single goal. Beating Austria was a tougher task than envisaged in the round of 16, but victories over Belgium and Spain in the following rounds were hard-fought and deserved.

A very noticeable team spirit has been evident throughout the tournament, and Mancini now has no new injury or suspension worries for the final.

Italy will be without the very impressive Spinazzola, who limped away from the quarterfinal, though. The Roma defender had been one of the stars of Euro 2020, but the slightly more defensive-minded Emerson now takes his left-back role.

Italy’s midfield strength will be crucial against the equally resolute England pairing of Rice and Phillips. But it could be the speedy Chiesa who poses the biggest threat up front, with Immobile and Insigne not quite as decisive at this tournament as they have been for their club sides this season.

Latest Odds and My Italy vs. England Betting Pick

Italy to Win+195
The Draw+205
England to Win+170

BetOnline has this one priced very closely – as befits a European Championship final – with England the slight favorite to win in 90 minutes. Home advantage is probably the only reason in separating these two at all, but Denmark showed that an overly partisan English crowd could be overcome. Italy has the players capable of doing that, but I’m not sure there will be a winner either way at the end of regular time.

Both semifinals went to extra time – with Italy’s victory over Spain only coming after an exhilarating penalty shoot-out. There shouldn’t be more fatigue shown by Mancini’s players, though. Many of them have played one game fewer thanks to the squad rotation for the group game against Wales – and an extra day’s rest compared to England.

Many of the knockout games at Euro 2020 have been very exciting to watch, and this final could keep that trend going. It is likely to be a very close encounter though, so there may not be many goals on show. It could even go down to a stroke of luck – or refereeing decision, as in England’s semi. Either way, I think we will be treated to an extended game on Sunday with everything still all square at the end of 90 minutes.

Pick
  • The Draw
    +205
Dan Roberts
Dan Roberts

Dan Roberts is an experienced freelance writer specialising in sports and sports betting. He is particularly knowledgeable about world soccer, but also writes about football, basketball and cricket.

As a fan of Nottingham Forest, New York Knicks, Minnesota Vikings and New York Mets, Dan has not had much to celebrate recently.

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