Prediction and Pick for Iowa vs. Iowa State – College Football (September 11, 2021)

By Dan Vasta in College Football
| September 10, 2021 12:16 pm PDT

Watching college football rivals battle it out is always exciting. This Saturday, September 11, Iowa and Iowa State will engage in an epic game for the Cy-Hawk trophy.

For the first time in their storied histories, both teams are in the Top 25. To make matters more exciting, they are both in the Top 10 for this heavyweight battle.

The rivals have been playing since 1894. The Hawkeyes have won the last five games played against the Cyclones. 2019 was the last time these two met, due to fewer games played in 2020 for most teams, only adding to the hype this weekend.

Ready to bet on this intense clash? Read on for my Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction and pick.

Iowa vs. Iowa State Odds

Iowa (+4.5)-108
Iowa State (+4.5)-112
Iowa to Win+162
Iowa State to Win-182
Over 45.5-115
Under 45.5-105

This potential instant classic has a tight spread at the best sites for betting on college football.

The Hawkeyes have owned and dominated the Cyclones through the years. All the sharps are on the Cyclones, and we have seen this number get closer to a touchdown. It was only a few points on Sunday when these odds were released, but a decent amount have jumped on the Cyclones bandwagon.

Since 2009, Iowa State has covered all five games in which they were a three to five-point home favorite. They are also 5-0 straight up in those games, and this seems to finally be the year for Matt Campbell’s Cyclones to get over the hump.

They had a remarkable season last year by appearing in its first-ever major bowl. This season could be even better if the Cyclones win this rivalry game.

Iowa is 1-6 against the spread in road games as an underdog between four to six points. They are also 1-6 straight up, making Iowa State worthy of moving on up.

It is time to discuss the entire matchup between Iowa and Iowa State. Here is how each team can win.

Why Iowa Wins

In the first-ever ranked meeting between these two, expect the unexpected.

If rivalries in college football have taught us anything, it’s that nothing goes as planned. Add the fluky targeting and ejection era, where stars get bounced from games left and right and the season could be pure mayhem.

Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the FBS, so there is nothing he hasn’t seen. The Big Ten has given the Hawkeyes plenty of great moments, and their domination of this rivalry will give Iowa a mental edge.

If anything goes wrong for the Cyclones, the Hawkeyes will have plenty of chances to pull away.

Iowa is known to control the clock under Ferentz. They have won games on defense and special teams, which have been a recurring theme for decades.

Their defense can outplay Iowa State’s, which is saying something. Both are experienced squads, but the Hawkeyes have the better secondary. Jack Koerner and Riley Moss are two stars in the secondary that are opportunistic.

Moss took a pair of picks the other way for scores that dominated Indiana last week. The game was never close, and the Hawkeyes could lean on its defense and come out victorious in Ames.

Why Iowa State Wins

The Cyclones were in the preseason Top 25 for a third straight year, which is a first.

Matt Campbell has been a godsend for the Iowa State Cyclones. The ability to haul in decent recruits and turn them into studs has been remarkable.

Breece Hall is a nightmare to defend at the running back position. Check out his stats from last season.

  • 279 rushes
  • 1,572 rushing yards
  • 5.6 YPC
  • 22 TDs
  • 23 catches
  • 252 receiving yards
  • 11 YPC

He keeps churning and coming after his opponents – seemingly there is no stopping him. Hall has the perfect blend of size, vision, and downhill ability to cause nightmares for opposing defenses.

Brock Purdy is an experienced signal-caller. He has been able to take care of the ball in most games over the years. The ability to throw the ball up is a bonus for this offense. Tight end Charlie Kolar is capable of snagging a few with his outrageous wingspan.

This program, more than any other, is ready to live up to the lofty expectations they have received this season. As long as they can run the ball with some authority when they need to, they have the pieces to win this game in the fourth quarter.

Iowa vs. Iowa State Prediction

The Hawkeyes and Cyclones will dazzle us this weekend with their ability to tee off on one another at the line of scrimmage.

Spencer Petras will need to make a few incredible plays in the pocket for the Hawkeyes to garner the road victory. Their defense has been outstanding under Phil Parker, one of the better coordinators in the country.

Purdy, Hall and Kolar’s experience on offense is going to find a way to get a monumental victory.

Iowa vs. Iowa State Pick

The Big Ten and Big 12 would love to make a splash in the CFP and get two teams in, and showcasing their talents in front of a nationally televised audience is one way to sway some votes from the committee.

The value is on Iowa here, but we need to take it a step further. The money line on Iowa State hasn’t moved up too much. The under on the point total is persuasive. However, the outright win for the Cyclones in Ames is too good to take a pass on.

Pick
  • Iowa State to Win
    -182

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