Inter vs. AC Milan – Serie A, October 17, 2020

By Admir Aljic in Soccer
| October 15, 2020 4:56 pm PDT

Inter started this Serie A season with a couple of wins over Fiorentina and Benevento, scoring even nine goals in the process, but Lazio held them to a 1-1 draw in Rome in the most recent round. With ten goals after the opening three games, Antonio Conte’s side is the second highest-scoring side behind Atalanta, and they are hoping to unlock Milan’s sturdy defense here.

AC Milan didn’t allow a single goal across the opening three matches and scored seven in return, recording three victories over Bologna, Crotone, and Spezia. Those rivals weren’t strong as Inter, and Silvio Pioli’s defense will have a mountain to climb to keep the net intact for the fourth consecutive game.

Check out my Inter vs. AC Milan betting pick and take a look at the latest news, stats, and H2H record along the way.

Inter vs. AC Milan Odds

Inter -0.5+125
AC Milan +0.5-128
Inter to Win+133
AC Milan to Win+218
Draw+268
Over 2.5-132
Under 2.5+124

Inter Team News and Stats

Ten goals scored in the first three Serie A rounds (W2, D1) and four straight H2H victories, make Internazionale slight favorites in the 226th edition of Derby della Madonnina (W82, D67, L76).

Each of Inter’s three Serie A games has featured both teams find the back of the net, with the opener coming no later than the third minute on two occasions. Additionally, two of those matches provided precisely seven-match goals, with one half seeing exactly five. That being said, only two of the last six competitive H2Hs have seen over 2.5 match goals. Romelu Lukaku with three Serie A goals this term scored in the previous two H2H duels with the final goal of the game.

Antonio Conte will be without Alessandro Bastoni (illness), Roberto Gagliardini (illness), Radja Nainggolan (illness), Andrei Radu (illness), Milan Skriniar (illness), and Ashley Young (illness), while Matias Vecino is out with a knee injury, and Stefano Sensi is suspended.

AC Milan Team News and Stats

AC Milan defeated Spezia 3-0 in the previous round in a match that saw them start with seven players born after 1/1/1999 – the first side in Europe’s top-five leagues to do so. The Rossoneri have won all six competitive games since the start of the campaign, keeping their net intact in each of their three Serie A matches (W3). Each of those three league games saw them win the second 45 minutes to-nil and score between the 50th and 58th minute period.

We might wait for the opener, though, as Milan kept a clean sheet in the opening 45 minutes in five Serie A games, while ten (71.43%) of their fourteen goals during that span were scored after the interval. Furthermore, Milan allowed only four first-half goals in this derby since January 2010, when designated as the away team, but finished up winning just once (W1, D3, L6).

Stefano Pioli cannot count on Leonardo Duarte (illness), Matteo Gabbia (illness), Andrea Conti (knee), Mateo Musacchio (ankle), and Ante Rebic (hand). Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored and assisted in the latest H2H tilt that Inter won 4-2, is back from quarantine and will be available to feature on Saturday. Zlatan will try to improve his all-time record of six goals and two assists against Inter.

Inter vs. AC Milan Pick

AC Milan won just one of the previous ten H2H encounters in Serie A, and it was back in January 2016, when the Rossoneri secured a comfortable 3-0 victory. Since then, Inter won five matches, while three ended without a winner. When Milan played as a visitor at this venue, the latest victory for them came in 2010.

Don’t let Milan’s rock-solid defense at the start of the season fool you, after all, they faced much weaker teams than Inter, who scored ten goals in three matches. I am backing Lukaku, Martinez, and co. to unlock Milan’s defense here, and not only that, I am backing them to score at least two goals. Inter managed to do that in each of the last three H2H duels.

Pick
  • Inter to score Over 1.5 Goals
    -110

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