Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins – NFL, Week 4

| September 29, 2021 1:43 pm PDT

The Colts are in a world of hurt, both literally and figuratively. They’re battered on both sides of the ball, they’re off to an 0-3 start, and Frank Reich’s already being questioned about his decision to trade for Carson Wentz.

As Jim Irsay remains skeptical about his new quarterback, Reich’s seat could start to warm up if Indy can’t right the ship in week 4.

Heading to Miami to play their former backup QB – the guy Indy released to clear the way for Wentz – a loss could spell real trouble for Reich and his supporters.

With that in mind, let’s check the odds and dive into this matchup. I’ll finish by unveiling my best Colts vs. Dolphins betting pick.

Colts vs. Dolphins Odds

Colts (+1.5)-110
Dolphins (-1.5)-110
Colts to Win+110
Dolphins to Win-130
Over 43-110
Under 43-110

Interestingly enough, last week’s Dolphins line moved from Miami +4 to Miami +3.5 once Tua Tagovailoa was officially ruled out. After watching Jacoby Brissett nearly steal a game on the road against one of the league’s five remaining undefeated teams, perhaps the top-rated betting sites were onto something.

Is it possible that the Fins are actually better off with Brissett under center? More on that in a bit.

First, let’s take a look at what Indianapolis must do to avoid an unthinkable 0-4 start.

Why the Colts Will Win

There are no two ways about it – it’s been a dreadful start for Indy on all fronts. Having said that, things aren’t going much better in South Beach. In fact, a quick glance at the surface numbers points toward Miami being worse off.

Comparing the Colts and Dolphins in 2021
Colts Stat Dolphins
18.7 Points Per Game 15.0
26.7 Points Allowed Per Game 27.3
342.0 Yards Per Game 292.3
383.3 Yards Allowed Per Game 418.0
+3 Turnover Differential +1
31:04 Average Time of Possession 27:28

And that’s not all.

Miami ranks dead last in the NFL in third-down defense (59.1%).

Despite the 0-3 start, the Colts’ locker room isn’t panicking and knows what they’re capable of. Defensive leader DeForest Buckner voiced his confidence after the loss to the Titans.

“I’ve been part of a couple of bad teams in my career, and we’re far from it.”

Frank Reich echoed these sentiments and said the team is fully invested in beating the Dolphins. That’s not too much to ask, is it?

Why the Dolphins Will Win

The Colts are banged up. All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson is questionable with a sprained ankle, while All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard is already playing with a bum ankle that the team has stated: “comprises his abilities.”

A sore ankle is also hindering Rock Ya-Sin, while Kwity Paye and Khari Willis are dealing with other lower-extremities injuries. I won’t even get into T.Y. Hilton’s absence or what’s going on with Wentz’s ankles. The point is that Indianapolis is operating with a depleted roster.

On the flip side, Miami has just one man on the injury report this week. That’s Tua, but let’s float the idea that Brissett might be more effective. I promise it’s not that far-fetched.

Jacoby is 6’4”/235 and adds an element of rushing ability that Tagovailoa simply doesn’t possess. Brissett showed a lot of grit late in the game last week in Vegas and has a good handle on the Colts’ defensive philosophies.

Brushing all opinions aside, Miami is favored in this game and doesn’t face the pressure of trying to win for the first time this season.

Colts vs. Dolphins Prediction

Credit the Phins for fighting hard last week in a hostile environment. There are no moral victories in the National Football League, but it’s clear Brian Flores is a rising talent who knows how to rally his troops.

Playing at home against a beat-up team getting spotty play at quarterback, I’m leaning toward Flores and company getting the job done.

While some sites aren’t offering money line odds for this game, you can safely lock in your Colts vs. Dolphins pick at MyBookie.

Colts vs. Dolphins Pick

I combed through the Colts against the spread data since Frank Reich took over, and there wasn’t much to glean. Indianapolis is 26-25-3 ATS under Reich; they’re 8-7-2 ATS as an away underdog. However, studying the Dolphins against the spread data since Brian Flores took over paints a much different picture.

Since 2019 (when Flores was hired), Miami has been top in the NFL with a 62.9% cover rate (22-13). That includes being 3-0 against the spread as a home favorite.

Ready for more?

  • Miami is 8-0 against the spread in their last eight home games against a team with a losing record.
  • The Dolphins are 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 games following a loss.

Surely you’re convinced that the value lies within the Phins getting it done.

  • Dolphins (-1.5)
Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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