Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns – NFL, October 11, 2020

By Admir Aljic in NFL
| October 6, 2020 3:49 am PDT

A week 5 AFC showdown at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland will see the Indianapolis Colts take on the Cleveland Browns in what should be a headline of this weekend’s NFL schedule.

Both teams are riding a three-game win streak after some tough losses in the opening week. They will meet each other for the first time since 2017 when the Colts barely outlasted the Browns 31-28 at home, and Indy has won eight of its previous nine encounters with Cleveland.

I bring you the best Colts vs. Browns betting pick and odds for Sunday, October 11, so let’s take a closer look.

Colts vs. Browns Odds

BET ODDS
Colts -2.5 -110
Browns +2.5 -110
Colts to Win -140
Browns to Win +125
Over 47.5 -110
Under 47.5 -110

The Colts are slight 2.5-point road favorites at the moment, and I’m a bit surprised by the odds here.

The Browns have been excellent offensively over the last three weeks, averaging a whopping 39.3 points in that stretch. They beat Dallas 49-38 on the road last Sunday, though the Colts won the road in Week 4, too, outlasting Chicago 19-11.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ defense is leading the NFL in points allowed per game (14.0), total yards (236.3), and passing yards surrendered per contest (159.3), while they are fourth in rushing yards allowed (77.0).

After a 27-20 defeat at the Jacksonville Jaguars in the opener, the Colts shut down the Vikings, Jets, and Bears, allowing only 29 points through that three-game span.

Their offense is doing a decent job, averaging 25.8 points per game (18th in the NFL) on 360.3 total yards (21st). The Colts are without their starting RB Marlon Mack, so they mostly lean on Philip Rivers’ arm. Still, Indy racked up 103 rushing yards against the Bears last Sunday while yielding only 28 in a return.

Rivers has tossed for 984 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions thus far. Rookie Jonathan Taylor has recorded 65 carries for 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns, doing a great job in Mack’s absence, but WR T.Y. Hilton is a huge disappointment with just 13 receptions for 162 yards and no scores.

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns are on fire after many, many years. Since a painful 38-6 defeat at the Baltimore Ravens in the opener, the Browns have been scoring at will. Their defense hasn’t impressed, showing plenty of flaws since Week 1, but the Browns’ offense has been spectacular over the previous three weeks.

Cleveland is coming off a 49-38 victory at Dallas, racking up 307 rushing yards and 201 through the air while converting four of their five red-zone opportunities. That’s some ridiculous numbers, but the Browns’ offensive unit is loaded, while their head coach Kevin Stefanski has a clear plan on what his team needs to do offensively.

Odell Beckham Jr. went off against Dallas with 154 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns. However, the Browns’ main strength is their backfield duo, as Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have been unstoppable so far.

Chubb recorded 57 carries for 335 yards and four touchdowns, while Hunt added 50 totes for 275 yards and three touchdowns and eight receptions for 42 yards and a couple of scores more.

Colts vs. Browns Pick

While the Browns lean on their mighty offense, the Colts have the best defense in the NFL through the first four weeks of the 2020 season. The Browns allowed 502 passing yards to Dak Prescott last weekend, so Philip Rivers will look to take advantage of their secondary, too.

Cleveland’s defense will have to improve a lot, but the Browns’ offense should make the difference in this one.

With all respect, the Colts have played some awful offensive teams thus far. Their defense is undoubtedly a top-notch one, but I think the Browns will have enough firepower to keep it close or even upset the odds and beat Indy.

The Colts are 3-6 ATS in their last nine road games when listed as favorites, while the Browns are 4-3 ATS in their previous seven outings at home as underdogs.

Pick
  • Cleveland Browns +3.5
    -130

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