Prediction for Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 – May 23rd (2022)

| May 22, 2022 10:08 am PDT

It looked like we would see another lopsided performance in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Miami Heat had a 20+ point lead in the first half, but the Boston Celtics came storming back.

Ultimately, the Heat held on to take a 2-1 series lead. A victory in Game 4 would put them in an excellent spot to make the NBA Finals. It won’t be easy though, as Boston continues to play strong basketball.

Let’s check out the odds for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Heat vs. Celtics Odds for May 23rd

Sportsbook Miami Heat Boston Celtics Bonus Offered Visit Site
Bovada (+250) (-300) 50% up to $250 Visit Bovada
BetOnline (+225) (-265) 60% up to $1,000 Visit BetOnline
BetUS (+235) (-275) 125% up to $2,500 Visit BetUS
MyBookie (+240) (-300) 100% up to $1,000 Visit MyBookie

Typically, the online NBA betting sites are in agreement with the odds. However, we’re seeing Bovada and MyBookie giving a bigger edge to the Boston Celtics. BetOnline will give you the best value for the Celtics, while Bovada is the go-to site for betting on the Miami Heat.

Miami pulled off the Game 3 victory as a five-point underdog. The sportsbooks have them as a seven-point underdog in Game 4. Boston has only covered the spread in consecutive games once since the first round.

The sportsbooks have settled on 208.5 points for the point total. All three games have cleared that mark.

Unfortunately, both teams are dealing with significant injuries. Jimmy Butler missed the second half of Game 3 with a knee injury, but Butler should be good for Game 4. Marcus Smart suffered an ankle sprain but returned in the second half. Tyler Herro and Jayson Tatum should also be good for Game 4.

Heat vs. Celtics Preview

I’m not sure how to describe the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals. Game 2 was never competitive, as the Boston Celtics cruised to a 25-point victory. The Miami Heat overcame a big deficit in Game 1 while holding off a late charge from the Celtics in Game 3.

It’s weird to say it has been a competitive series when there has been a 20+ point lead in all three games. As we look ahead to Game 4, the big discussion will be the availability of Jimmy Butler, Marcus Smart, and more.

Miami looked like a different team after Butler’s injury in Game 3.

  First Half Second Half
Points 62 47
Field Goal Percentage 51.0 41.5
Three-Point Percentage 43.8 23.5

Bam Adebayo stepped up in Butler’s absence. He had 31 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, and four steals. Adebayo is one of those players whose impact goes beyond the stat sheet. However, his numbers show he was the driving force behind Miami’s victory.

Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 40 points and nine rebounds in Game 3. Jayson Tatum has led the Celtics in the postseason, but he had an ugly performance in Game 3.

Check out his numbers.

  • 10 points
  • 3-14 field goal shooting
  • 1-7 three-point shooting
  • 6 turnovers

Boston made a big comeback in the second half, but Tatum was a non-factor. He had two points on 0-4 field goal shooting. Brown had the hot hand, but that’s unacceptable from Tatum. We expect more from a top contender for the 2022 NBA Finals MVP.

Tatum and Tyler Herro dealt with injuries in Game 3 but should be ready for Game 4. Smart is the biggest injury concern, but his return in the second half should give Celtics fans confidence.

Injuries will play a significant factor in Game 4.

Heat vs. Celtics Same Game Parlay

  • Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-148)
  • Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 Points (-116)
  • Al Horford Over 3.5 Assists (+138)

The injury concerns for the Miami Heat have the sportsbooks waiting on their player props. Because of that, we’ll focus on the Boston Celtics for my same game parlay. This parlay gives you (+585) odds.

Jaylen Brown had his best game of the playoffs, recording a game-high 40 points on 14-20 field goal shooting. Brown has been impressive against the Heat this season, but his three-point shooting has been on display in the postseason.

Brown has made 3+ three-pointers in five of his last six games. He’s averaging eight three-point attempts in the Eastern Conference Finals. That increased volume is great for this prop, and it should help him clear 2.5 three-pointers made.

We talked about Jayson Tatum having his worst game of the postseason in Game 3. Tatum has struggled against the Heat this season.

  • November 4: 10 points
  • January 31: 20 points
  • March 30: 23 points
  • Game 1: 29 points
  • Game 2: 27 points
  • Game 3: 10 points

He has only cleared 27.5 points against the Heat once in six games. It nearly didn’t happen in Game 1 after a rough second half.

Al Horford has looked like a different player in the postseason. Robert Williams’ absence has led to Horford taking on a bigger role, and he hasn’t disappointed.

Horford has done a great job involving his teammates, averaging 3.3 assists. His assist total has been right around this projection, so we’re taking a risk. Horford has 3+ assists in nine straight games, but six of those games were under 3.5.

Sometimes, you have to take a chance with the value.

Heat vs. Celtics Pick

Pick
  • Under 208.5
    -110

For the first time in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, I’m expecting a game to go under the point total. The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics made it to this point on the strength of their defense.

Boston’s Game 2 performance was likely the best defensive performance of the series. Jimmy Butler should play in Game 4, but a less than 100 percent player will hurt Miami’s offense. I like the Celtics to win, but there isn’t much value in that pick.

Game 4 will be live on Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Check out Bovada to wager on the action.

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Nicholas Sterling
Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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