Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Preview – NBA, March 4, 2021

By Dean McHugh in NBA
| March 4, 2021 9:48 am PDT

The Warriors travel to Phoenix looking to light up the Suns in this Pacific Divisional matchup. Both teams are having a good season and find themselves amongst the playoff spots in the Western Conference. However, the Suns have excelled the most as they are ranked highest, currently occupying second place. The Jazz are starting to pull away from them, so they will need to ensure victory tonight to close the ever-growing gap.

The teams have alternated wins over the previous five times they have met, which would make it the Warrior’s turn to win tonight if that continued. They last met at the end of January on this reporter’s birthday, and the Suns ran out comfortable 21 point winners. Phoenix didn’t have a great deal to do to achieve this as the Warriors had a dreadful night shooting at only 38% from field goal range and 28% from deep. The win halted a three-game skid for the Suns, and they haven’t looked back since.

Here is my Warriors vs. Suns betting preview.

Warriors vs. Suns Odds

Warriors +5.5-110
Suns -5.5-110
Warriors To Win+195
Suns To Win-220
Over 223.5 Points-110
Under 223.5 Points-110

The most interesting thing for me here is how much the spread has grown since the betting has opened. It started at 2.5 and has raised to 5.5 in a short space of time. While many might consider 2.5 to perhaps be on the small side, there is no doubt that 5.5 is on the big side. When they met only five weeks ago, the spread was only two points, but that could have been influenced by the fact that the Suns were entering the game on the back of three straight defeats.

Warriors News

Over the past month, the Warrior’s wins have tended to come in clusters; however, so have their defeats. They are in one of those losing clusters right now, having lost their previous two games. They were comprehensively beaten by the Lakers and then lost out narrowly against the Trail Blazers last time. The game was nip and tuck all the way, but Lillard nailed a three-pointer late to give Portland a two-point victory.

The Warriors have been relatively poor on their travels this season and have an away record of 7-11 from their 18 games. They come into the match having lost back to back away matches for the fourth time over the last month. On each other occasion, they have always won the next game, something they will be hoping continues tonight.

Here are the latest betting trends for Golden State:

Against The Spread

  • The Warriors have won two-thirds of their previous 15 matches against the Suns.
  • They have only won three of their last 15 games played on a Thursday.

Points Total

  • Five of their last six games have gone under the betting total.
  • All of their previous five road trips have seen the points total go under.

Other Pointers

  • The Warriors have won 16 of their previous 20 games against the Suns.
  • They have only lost two of their last 12 matches played in Phoenix.
  • Golden State has lost four of their previous five games against Western Conference teams.

The Warriors and the Sun’s offenses match up well as Golden State is ranked 12th for theirs and the Suns 13th for their attack. The Warriors are averaging a decent 114 points per game this season, and they could see this increase further if they can improve their rebounding stats.

Golden State passes the ball exceptionally well and is a joy to watch when they are in full flow.

They haven’t been quite as sharp on the road this season and have averaged three points less per game, which has undoubtedly contributed to their poor away form.

Their defense hasn’t been great, mostly down to them not recycling the ball enough on the boards. While their stats are much better than their offensive rebounding ones, there is still room for improvement.

The Warriors like to sit deep and defend the basket, which works well most of the time, but then it also begs the question, why are they not making more defensive rebounds when they have the players in the correct positions?

They also tend to make a large number of personal fouls, which is something the coaching staff will need to address.

Their defense is also conceding three more points per game on the road, meaning they have to find six extra points on their travels most nights to stay competitive.

As you would expect, Stephen Curry leads all of the Warriors scoring charts this season, and he sits third in the average points per game rankings in the league. Not only is he an exceptional talent, but he is a positive influence to have around the locker room, and he believes that his Warriors are still the team to beat this season.

The Warriors will be without Thompson and Chriss, who are both ruled out for the season. Oubre Junior remains questionable to feature as he recovers from a recent wrist injury.

Suns News

The Suns come into this game having only lost three of their last 18 games and are arguably the best team in the league right now. This includes winning their previous three games in a row. However, they should be cautious tonight as the last time they won three in a row, they were stopped in their tracks by the Hornets.

Although they are on this incredible run, they have lost two of their last three home games. This now gives them a home record of 11-6 from their 17 matches which is still more than healthy. The two defeats came by relatively small margins as they went by four against the Nets and three to the Hornets in their most recent home fixture. The Suns didn’t have a bad night against the Hornets, to be fair, Charlotte had a fantastic game which happens.

Here are the latest betting trends for Phoenix:

Against The Spread

  • The Suns have only lost one of their previous seven matches.
  • Phoenix has a record of 12-2 in their last 14 games.
  • They have won all five of their most recent matchups with Western Conference opposition.

Points Total

  • Nine of their last 12 games have gone over the betting total.
  • Their previous seven games against the Warriors have all gone under the points total.
  • Only one of their last seven home games has failed to go over the betting total.
  • The total has gone under in nine of their previous 12 matches against teams in the Pacific Division.

Other Pointers

  • Phoenix has only won three of their previous 11 matches played in March.

The Sun’s offense has shot very well for the large part this season, but like their opponents tonight, their rebounding has let them down.

They are deadly from the free-throw line and have the second-highest success rate in the NBA. This is something the Warriors will have to be wary of giving their ill-discipline.

The Suns also pass the ball very nicely, perhaps not quite as well as the Warriors, but we can expect plenty of assists to be made tonight. Phoenix not only passes the ball well but also uses it well and is intelligent with their plays. Many of these assists are attributed to the veteran Chris Paul, who doesn’t seem to age! He recently moved into sixth on the all-time assists rankings in the NBA, and he firmly has his sights set on moving into the top five and replacing the great Magic Johnson in doing so.

The two teams differentiate the most in defense, as the Suns are far superior in this department. They mark-up incredibly tight all over the court and are a tough team to break down. Again, their rebounding could be much better, but it hasn’t hindered them too much to date.

You would also expect a team that marks their opponents, as well as the Suns, do to be producing more steals. Given their poor rebounding stats, this is an area they need to work on to see more of the ball.

The Suns have no reported absentees for tonight’s game.

Warriors vs. Suns Pick

Pick
  • Suns To Win
    -220

This is yet another intriguing NBA encounter that promises to be a classic. The matchup on the boards will be an interesting one, with neither team being reliable in that department. I think this will be a close game, but the Suns look unbeatable at times, and when they are beaten, the other team has to play out of their skins to do so. However, I think it could be close, so I won’t take on the increased handicap.

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