Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks – NBA, February 4, 2021

By Dean McHugh in NBA
| February 4, 2021 4:36 am PDT

These teams find themselves outside of the playoff spots in the Western Conference and fourth in their respected divisions.

It’s the Mavericks that have enjoyed the lion’s share of the victories recently, having won four of the last five games between them. Those four games were, in fact, the previous four games in a row, so they should have plenty of confidence heading into this one.

Although the last ten head-to-head matchups are split with each team winning five games each, the Mavericks have averaged nine points more per game than the Warriors. This suggests that they have had some very dominant wins over them. In particular, they have dominated the first half of games averaging seven more points before the break, so look for them to start fast tonight.

Here are the game odds, my team analysis, and betting prediction.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds

Warriors (+3.5) -110
Mavericks (-3.5) -110
Warriors To Win +146
Mavericks To Win -160
Over 224.5 Points -110
Under 224.5 Points -110

I guess you could be slightly surprised to find the Mavericks favorites to win this one, given the Warriors have a better overall record this season. Still, then again, they have struggled against Dallas recently. The points total looks a couple of points on the low side at first glance and could offer some value.

Warriors News

The Warriors have certainly lacked consistency this season, failing to win more than two games in a row throughout. However, they have won three of their previous five games. Although those three wins came against the Timberwolves and the Pistons, the two teams with the worst records in the NBA, so the form doesn’t stand up.

The Warriors haven’t traveled well so far this season, winning only three of their eight road trips to date. They had a fine 113-115 win over the Lakers but followed that up with heavy defeats to the Jazz and the Suns.

Here are the latest betting trends for Golden State:

Bet Type Trend
ATS They have lost their last seven games in a row against Dallas.
ATS Golden State is 2-6 in their previous eight games on the road.
Total Their games in Dallas are usually high scoring as the last five have all gone over the betting total.
ATS The Warriors have won four of their previous six games against Western Conference opposition.
SU They don’t have a good record against teams based in the Southwest Division, as they have lost six of the last seven.
Total Their last five games played in February have all gone under the points total.

The above highlights the Mavericks dominance of this fixture recently and the fact that the Warriors haven’t played well on the road either recently.

The Warriors have an average looking offense this season that isn’t incredibly accurate and doesn’t rebound too well either. What they do well is break and breakfast, getting the ball as quickly as possible down the other end before their opponents can get set.

Their offensive rebounding is amongst the worst in the league, but it’s not down to a lack of ability; it’s the way they play. Breaking so fast means that they don’t get time to set under the basket to make many rebounds.

It’s probably no surprise to see that their attack has been worse on the road this season, averaging five points less per game.

Their defense is a strange one as technically they are doing most things right, but they are still conceding on average 113 points per game. I suppose spending so much time without the ball is going to catch up with you eventually. However, like their offense, their defense hasn’t performed on the road, either conceding seven more points per game on average.

Discipline is an area that needs to improve dramatically as they are averaging 23 personal fouls per game, which is the highest in the league this season.

Veteran Stephen Curry shows no signs of easing up later on in life as he continues to produce great performances night after night. He spoke recently about drawing inspiration from the NFL’s Tom Brady.

The Warriors have a whole stack of injuries piling up right now as they have five players confirmed as out for this game. These include Thompson, Looney, Chriss, Smallagic, and Wiseman.

Mavericks News

The Mavericks ended a run of six straight defeats by beating the Hawks last time out by 116-122. In all fairness to Dallas, they have had a tough run of fixtures recently as they have faced the Nuggets, Jazz, and Suns during that period.

They have been abysmal at home this season, winning only two of their eight games played in Dallas. They have lost their last five home games in a row, so a run of seven straight home fixtures is probably not what they want right now.

Here are the latest betting trends for Dallas:

Bet Type Trend
ATS The Mavericks have only won one of their previous seven games.
Total Six of their last nine games have gone over the betting total.
Total This trend has continued against the Warriors as seven of the previous nine games against them have gone over the points total.
ATS They have won lost their last five games in a row at home.
SU Dallas has lost their previous six games against teams from the Western Conference.
SU The Mavericks have only won one of their last seven games against teams based in the Pacific Division.
Total Only three of their previous 13 games played in February has gone under the points total.

The above highlights their struggles of late. However, it also shows us that they have been involved in some very entertaining, high scoring games.

For a team involved in so many high scoring games recently, you would expect the Mavericks to have a better offense than they do. They are terrible at shooting from deep and just as bad at rebounding. They are the worst team at shooting three-pointers in the league, making 32% of their shots taken.

However, they at good at dictating the pace of the game, often slowing it down and frustrating their opponents. This means that they don’t make many assists, but they also don’t turn the ball over much either. Slovenian Luka Doncic has been instrumental in this and is the driving force behind the Mavericks. If they stand any chance of doing well this season, then he gets to be on point.

Their defense is something to work with, though, and will be crucial to their success this season. They press well and don’t allow their opponents much time or space on the ball.

The Mavericks have no injury concerns right now, which could be crucial playing against a team with many.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Betting Pick

This could be a scrappy fight of a game as the Mavericks will look to slow the ball down and frustrate the Warriors. In turn, this will incite the Warrior’s aggressive side, which could make this a dog fight. Both teams will also likely air on the side of caution, given neither has recently been in the best of form. Therefore, I will pick under the points total in this one.

Pick
  • Under 224.5 Points
    -110

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