Germany vs. Australia – Olympic Basketball, July 31, 2021

After splitting their first two games, the Germans close out group play with their toughest battle yet. Set to face off against undefeated Australia, a good performance against the Boomers should be enough to push Germany into the knockout stage.

On the other hand, if the Aussies roll by a significant margin, Henrik Rodl and his men will be watching Group C play out sitting on pins and needles.

I’ll begin by assessing the odds and discussing an x-factor on each side. I’ll close with my best Germany vs. Australia betting pick.

The 9.5-point spread is consistent at all of the best places to bet on the Olympics (as of Thursday morning). However, there’s some slight discrepancy regarding the total.

Most of the bookies have held firm at 172.5 while BetUS has pumped it up to 173. As disciplined as the Boomers are on defense, there’s certainly merit in tabbing the under. Those of you leaning in that direction, make sure you don’t leave any equity on the table.

At first glance, Australia’s the better and more well-rounded team. They’re 2-0, they beat the Americans earlier this month in Vegas, and they’re much higher (#3) than Germany (#17) is in the FIBA rankings. Before the tournament started, I had the Aussies slotted 2^nd in my Olympic Basketball power rankings; the Germans were penciled in at #10.

Having said all that, you’d be surprised at how Germany stacks up in some of the crucial statistics.  Keep in mind; they’ve played against the same two teams (Nigeria, Italy) thus far, so these numbers are fairly relative.

The Boomers may have more weapons, but Germany is plenty capable of mounting an upset.

Maodo Lo and Moritz Wagner will get theirs, but Henrik Rodl needs others to step up. Evaluating Johannes Voigtmann’s performances up to this point, it’s clear that his impact on the game goes a long way toward the end result.

The 6’11” center anchors the paint defensively and even hit a couple of three-pointers the last time out. Voigtmann avoided foul trouble and was able to stay on the floor versus Nigeria; Germany needs more of the same to stand a chance against Australia.

Brian Goorjian’s starting five is loaded with NBA talent. Reserves Matisse Thybulle and Dante Exum came with a wealth of NBA experience and were counted on to be the two most productive players off the bench.

Apparently, that memo never made its way to Nick Kay.

Kay played wonderfully off the bench against Nigeria, posting a fruitful 12-8-4 line in 26 minutes. His efficiency score of 18 was only bettered by Patty Mills. To the coaching staff delight, Kay was even better on Wednesday versus Italy.

The 6’9” power forward scored 15 points and grabbed 7 rebounds on 6/7 shooting. He didn’t turn the ball over, and this time nobody on either side surpassed his efficiency score (24).

Time to lock in a Germany vs. Australia pick. Before brushing Nigeria aside, Germany led Italy by four points through three quarters. They’re balanced on both ends of the floor and have enough size, not to mention, they’ve made more three-pointers in Tokyo than anybody else.

I’m pegging Australia to win this game but think that Germany keeps it under double digits.

Remember, the tiebreaker to determine which teams will advance from the group stage comes down to head-to-head points. Consequently, Germany can ill-afford to let this game get out of hand.