Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Air Force Falcons – College Basketball, February 11, 2021

By Dean McHugh in College Basketball
| February 11, 2021 6:17 am PDT

These teams have struggled for consistency this season, which is why they find themselves in seventh and tenth positions.

The recent head to head record has been close, with the Bulldogs taking a slender advantage over the previous five meetings, winning three and losing two. Oddly, their record on the road against the Falcons has been even better as they have won four of the previous five games.

Here are the game odds, my team analysis, and betting prediction.

Bulldogs vs. Falcons Odds

Bulldogs (-4.5) -110
Falcons (+4.5) -110
Bulldogs To Win -200
Falcons To Win +170
Over 124.5 Points -110
Under 124.5 Points -110

The spread looks about right here and reflects both team’s season to date. However, the points total seems very low and interest me much.

The Bulldogs have an excellent record as the betting favorites this season, losing only one game from six matches.

Bulldogs Preview

Fresno States wins, and losses have tended to come in groups as they have not alternated a win with a loss or vice verse all season. This is not good news considering they lost their last game after beating New Mexico back to back.

They haven’t spent much time on their travels this season, and this has been a good thing as they have lost all five of their games on the road. Although they have played against good teams during that run, the disappointing thing is they haven’t got closer than 14 points in any of the games.

Here are the latest betting trends for Fresno State:

Bet Type Trend
ATS They have only won one of their last six games.
Total Seven of their previous eight games have gone under the betting total.
ATS The Bulldogs have a terrible record of 3-10 in their last 13 games against the Falcons.
SU However, it would appear that this is mainly down to the bookmakers making life too difficult for them as they have won 13 of the last 16 games against Air Force straight up.
ATS It’s no surprise looking at the margins they have lost by to see that they have lost all five games on the road this season.
ATS They have only won three of their previous ten games played in February.

The above information suggests that they have a hold over the Falcons, but their wins have come by narrow score lines. It also shows us that their games have been low scoring recently.

The Bulldogs haven’t had much bite in attack this season, as they continue to struggle in most departments, except for the rebounding, which has been good. They have been especially poor from the three-point range where they have a success percentage of less than 30%. Their shooting from closer hasn’t been much better as they have the third-lowest field goal percentage in the Conference.

This has a lot to do with their passing, which is terrible at best. They consistently fail to create good openings for themselves, which means they end up trying to force or rush their shots. They also turn the ball over more than any other team in the Conference.

Their offense has been next to non-existent on the road this season as they have only averaged 57 points per game, which is ten points lower than their overall average.

They have a good defense that doesn’t have many weaknesses across the board. They are particularly good at winning the ball back from their opponents as they average seven steals per game. They also block well, which makes them a tough cookie to crack.

However, just like their attack, they have been terrible on the road concerning, on average, a whopping 19 points more per game.

Orlando Robinson has been the big dog for Fresno State this season, and he has attracted plenty of attention from then NBA scouts recently.

The Bulldogs have no absentees listed for this upcoming game.

Falcons Preview

The Falcons have had a poor season, and they have only won four of their 18 games. They have lost their previous seven matches in a row, but they have come close to a victory on a couple of occasions losing by one point to San Jose State and by five to UNLV last time out. Although it was an encouraging performance against UNLV, they will feel disappointed with the loss given they lead by six at half time.

Although they have a poor record at home, three of their four wins have come at home, so there is hope for them. However, their confidence will be knocked after suffering back-to-back heavy defeats to San Diego State most recently.

Here are the latest betting trends for Air Force:

Bet Type Trend
ATS They have lost five of their previous seven matches.
Total Ten of their last 15 games have gone over the betting total.
Total The total has gone under in 13 of their previous 17 games against the Bulldogs.
ATS They have only won two of their last 13 games at home.
Total Ten of their previous 13 games have gone over the points total when they entered the match as the underdog.
Total Four of their last five games played at home on a Thursday has gone over the betting total.

These trends suggest that the Falcons have not only lost recently, but they have lost big.

The Falcons offense is worse than that of the Bulldogs if that is even possible. Their rebounding stats are amongst the worst in the country, but thankfully, they have an accurate field goal percentage.

They are averaging less than 60 points per game, which is not good enough by anyone’s standards. This is why they have a point per game difference of -13.3, which is the second-worst difference in the Conference.

Like their opponents here, they turn the ball over on too many occasions, so it will be interesting to see what happens tonight.

Their defense is poor also, and at times they look like headless chickens out on the court. They don’t mark their opponents well, which means they don’t make many blocks and allow far too many easy baskets against them.

Overall, the Falcons are just too friendly to play against, and they don’t make life difficult enough for their opponents.

Junior AJ Walker leads most of the Falcons’ scoring stats, but he will be hoping for an improved performance against the Bulldogs as he hasn’t played particularly well against them in the past.

If Nikc Jackson can improve upon his poor disciplinary record, he could be a real asset for Air Force for the remainder of the season.

The Falcons also have a clean bill of health.

Bulldogs vs. Falcons Betting Pick

This is a tough one to call between two teams who are struggling and desperate for a win. I’m tempted to go with under the points total, but it is too low a mark to take on. Therefore, I will go with the Bulldogs, who have done well as betting favorites and well in away fixtures against Air Force.

Pick
  • Bulldogs To Win
    -200

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