Fair Grounds Race Course Betting Picks – Saturday, February 13, 2021

| February 12, 2021 3:14 pm PDT

Fair Grounds Race Course’s 13-race card for Saturday including not only the usual gamut of maiden, allowance, and claiming races, but six stakes races, as well.

The stakes line-up starts with two ungraded stakes races, then moves on to a pair of Grade III stakes, then two Grade II stakes that include the Grade II Risen Star Stakes, one of the big milestones along the 2021 Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Incidentally, the combined purses for the six stakes races at Fair Ground on Saturday add up to $1,250,000. Throw in free parking, and that’s a very respectable number.

While I review all six of the stakes races here, you can find Fair Grounds’ entire race card for Saturday — including horses, jockeys, trainers, morning line odds, and wagering options — at one of our best horse racing betting sites.

Read on for my Fair Grounds Race Course picks and tips for Saturday, February 13, 2021.

Fair Grounds Picks for Race 7 – Colonial Power Stakes

This is the Colonel Power Stakes, an ungraded stakes race for four-year-olds and upward running a distance of 5-1/2 furlongs on turf for a purse of $100,000.

While there are two entries in the race with statistical edges, the 5/2 morning line favorite — Extravagant Kid, with Florent Geroux in the irons — has more experience competing against top thoroughbreds.

For the record, this eight-year-old gelding has finished in the money 35 of his 48 career starts, winning 14 — eight of which were Black Type stakes runs.

And at 12/1, Captivating Moon, with Marcelino Pedroza aboard, looks like a good value show wager. This six-year-old moneyed 17 of his 28 career starts, winning four. Please note that Captivating Moon is also entered in the Grade III Fair Grounds Stakes (race 11, below).

  •  Win: Extravagant Kid 5/2
  •  Show: Captivating Moon 12/1

Fair Grounds Picks for Race 9 – Albert M. Stall Memorial Stakes

This is the Albert M. Stall Memorial Stakes, an ungraded stakes race for fillies and mares four years old and upward running a distance of 1-1/16 miles on turf for a purse of $100,000.

I believe this will be a tight race between the 5/2 morning line favorite and the 8/1 underdog. They have virtually identical records, although the underdog has moneyed more often.

But the favorite has competed successfully in far more graded stakes, which makes my choice here easy: My win ticket is on the 5/2 morning line favorite — Secret Message, ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. This six-year-old mare moneyed 12 of her 21 career starts, winning seven, including the Grade III Old Forester Mint Julep Stakes at Churchill Downs last May.

At 20/1, Dreamalildreamofu, ridden by Colby Hernandez, is very likable for a value show ticket. This four-year-old filly moneyed six of her seven career starts, winning three.

  •  Win: Secret Message 5/2
  •  Show: Dreamalildreamofu 20/1 

Fair Grounds Race Course Pick for Race 10 – Mineshaft Stakes

This is the Mineshaft Stakes, a Grade III stakes race for four-year-olds and upward running a distance of 1-1/16 miles for a purse of $200,000.

No question why Maxfield, ridden by Florent Geroux, is the 4/5 morning line favorite: This four-year-old colt won all four of his career starts, following the breaking of his maiden with wins in three stakes races, two of them graded.

And before you call me on it — yes, Maxfield was one of the more promising hopefuls on the Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby until a condylar fracture took him out of the running. His win just two months ago in the Tenacious Stakes (Listed ) here at Fair Grounds shows he’s not ready for retirement just yet.

I see no longer-odds entries in this race worth the risk of a show bet — not against this field.

  •  Win: Maxfield 4/5

Fair Grounds Race Course Picks for Race 11 – Fair Grounds Stakes

This is the Fair Grounds Stakes, a Grade III stakes race for four-year-olds and upward running a distance of 1-1/8 miles on turf for a purse of $150,000.

My money is on the second-favored (9/2) entry in this race — Logical Myth, ridden by Adam Beschizza. This five-year-old gelding moneyed 10 of his 18 career starts, winning seven.

Despite the morning line favorite’s greater experience in graded stakes races, Logical Myth has won his last three races, including the ungraded Buddy Diliberto Memorial Stakes (Listed) and the Colonel E. R. Bradley Stakes (Listed) at Fair Grounds in December 2020 and January 2021, respectively. He’s on a roll.

If Captivating Moon scratched out of race 7 (an ungraded stakes match) to start in this one, he is my 15/1 value show ticket favorite.

  •  Win: Logical Myth 9/2
  •  Show: Captivating Moon 15/1 

Fair Grounds Pick for Race 12 – Rachel Alexandra Stakes

This is the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, a Grade II stakes race for three-year-old fillies running a distance of 1-1/16 miles for a purse of $300,000.

I agree with the morning line here, so my money is on the 2/1 favorite — Travel Column, with Florent Geroux aboard. This filly finished in the money for all three of her career starts, winning two, including her most recent start, the Golden Rod Stakes (Grade II) at Churchill Downs in November.

Even the long-odds entries in this stakes race have impressive records, but I don’t see any of them likely to finish in the money against this field.

  •  Win: Travel Column 2/1

Fair Grounds Race Course Picks for Race 13 – Risen Star Stakes

This is the Risen Star Stakes, a Grade II stakes race for three-year-olds running a distance of 1-1/8 miles for a purse of $400,000. The Risen Star Stakes is the first of several intermediate prep races for the 2021 Road to the Kentucky Derby, awarding qualification points to the four top finishers (50-20-10-5).

The 3/1 morning line favorite, Keepmeinmind (ridden in this race by David Cohen), is already near the top of the 2021 Road to the Kentucky Derby scoreboard — so who am I to argue? I’ll join the crowd and bet my money on this colt who has moneyed all four of his career starts — his first and only maiden race followed by three graded stakes.

Can’t resist that 50/1 longshot? Me neither — but just for a value show bet. Sermononthemount, with Declan Carroll in the irons for this race, moneyed two of his three career starts. It could happen.

  •  Win: Keepmeinmind 3/1
  •  Show: Sermononthemount 50/1

More Racing Predictions for Saturday

You’d think we’d be happy with reviews of the six stakes races at Fair Grounds Race Course, but I have more to share from the other two tracks I reviewed for Saturday:

J.W. Paine
J.W. Paine

J.W. Paine is one of the most experienced writers at GamblingSites.com. He's written for television and the printed media, and is a published novelist (as Tom Elliott).

Paine loves writing about Las Vegas nearly as much he loves living here. An experienced gambler, he's especially familiar with thoroughbred horseracing, poker, blackjack, and slots.

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