Early Daniel Dubois vs. Joe Joyce Betting Preview

| September 2, 2020 10:32 am PDT

Daniel Dubois vs. Joe Joyce is the type of fight that boxing fans cannot wait for. I mean, other than a bout between Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua, this must be the most eagerly anticipated all-British heavyweight scrap there is. 

Both are unbeaten prospects with solid amateur backgrounds. Joyce’s success carried him all the way to a silver medal at the 2016 Olympics in Rio. Dubois was slated to appear at the 2020 Olympics but opted to sign a professional contract with Frank Warren instead.

A convincing win for either man in this fight would be huge for their career ambitions. Due to the lockdown on sports in 2020, this fight could not go ahead in April. Promoters are now targeting a date in October.

Both are eyeing up a shot at one of the four major world titles and feel confident about their chances of rubbing shoulders with the elite heavyweights on the world stage. As a result, this fight is a big deal.

As for betting on the fight? Well, Dubois (15-0, 14 KOs) and Joyce (11-0, 10 KOs) have their committed backers. It would be highly unfair to say that either will walk this fight, but there are qualities that must be considered when a stylistic matchup like this pops up.

I’ve laid out the latest odds, best bets, and a clear pick for Dubois vs. Joyce. Let us start with my prediction.

Dubois vs. Joyce – Who Wins?

  • Daniel Dubois by KO/TKO

I’m going to walk you through why I think Dubois wins this fight a little later. 

All I will say right now is that I believe him to have the momentum on his side. Not only that, but he is improving radically at just 22, while Joyce, the veteran, might be beginning to plateau at 34. 

There is a lot more to talk about, and we’ll get to that a little later. But perhaps a quick glance at the odds for Dubois vs. Joyce is in order before we move on?

Dubois vs. Joyce Odds

Daniel Dubois to Win-500
Joe Joyce to Win+320

Despite fans and pundits being torn on this one, Dubois’ odds to beat Joyce are a comfortable -500 with Betway. That means you need to put $500 down to win $100. 

This is a little surprising to me. I mean, getting the win is far from a walk in the park for Dubois, and it is not that far beyond the reaches of Joyce. If anything, I would have this fight at around 60/40 in favor of “DDD,” which makes Joyce the value bet on the moneyline.

Dubois has opened as the favorite in every single fight of his pro career so far. The most generous odds you could get on the young, unbeaten prospect were against Nathan Gorman in a British heavyweight title scrap in July 2019.

Dubois blasted the previously unbeaten Gorman inside five rounds that night, furthering his hype as one for the future. Since then, he has stopped Ebenezer Tetteh, Kyotaro Fujimoto, and Ricardo Snijders in the 1st, 2nd, and 2nd rounds of their respective fights.

Joyce has also been on the end of some noticeably short odds for the majority of his career and enters a plus money underdog for the first time in the paid ranks. The best of his previous odds (-303) came against the solid Bryant Jennings. Joyce beat Jennings by unanimous decision that night.

There is value to be had in backing Joyce, sure. But let’s look at some of the other bets for this fight.

Best Bets for Dubois vs. Joyce

The leading boxing bookmakers will release their Dubois vs. Joyce props and specials a little closer to fight night. But at the time of writing, it’s just the moneyline odds available. 

But that has not deterred me from putting together three bets that I feel make the most sense. I’ll explain why, so keep reading.

Dubois to Win by KO/TKO

In my opinion, Dubois has the power to put his one-time amateur rival away pretty early in the fight. 

A notoriously slow starter, Joyce will surely need to carefully navigate the younger man in the early rounds. Just one miscalculation and it could be all she wrote for the Putney boy. 

Dubois’ best chance also comes early. If he cannot get a hold of the fight in the first half of it, Joyce’s chances improve the longer it goes on. 

Dubois’ moneyline odds aren’t that great but backing to win by KO/TKO should reel things back in your favor.

Joyce to Win

The value bet of the night is backing Joyce to beat Dubois at +320, as this is closer to a 50/50 fight then the oddsmakers seem to believe. 

Joyce has the experience to really test Dubois and will be looking to keep him at the end of his 80.5″ reach. Height wise, he owns a 0.5″ advantage over Dubois, but I can’t see this being anything worthy of too much thought.

If anything, Joyce is being underestimated in this fight a little. He may very well have the answer for Dubois if he can deny him his jab and land the right combinations and work the body.

Fight to End Inside the Distance

I don’t think this fight will go the distance.

Dubois and Joyce have a combined 24 KO/TKOs from 26 contests, and both will be confident of pulling another stoppage out of the bag. 

While Joyce could make this very difficult for Dubois, I just can’t see him shutting “DDD” down for the full duration of this fight. Someone is going to get wobbled early, and someone is going to be out of there by the final bell. In my opinion, that someone will be Joyce.

Here’s how I see this fight ending.

Why Dubois Beats Joyce

Daniel Dubois is one of Britain’s most exciting prospects in years, and, in my opinion, one of the world’s best young boxers right now. 

Dubois’ dismantling of Nathan Gorman in 2019 really brought the young Londoner to the wider attention of the boxing fanbase. His victory in that fight won him the Lonsdale Belt as well as earning him a spot in the history books as the third-youngest heavyweight to own the British title. 

Against Joyce, Dubois faces his stiffest test to date. The Olympian is an accomplished fighter that doesn’t get the respect he deserves at times. That said, he is far from what you would consider as a bridge too far for the 22-year-old. 

There are questions over Dubois being ready for Joyce. I think he is. In fact, I don’t see why his progression should be hampered over concerns regarding how he will deal with life at this level.

We have seen a number of highly touted boxers come up short at world level following years of blatant mismatches. Dubois has earned the right to show what he can do when put against someone that will provide him with riddles to solve. He deserves the opportunity to fight Joyce.

Can Joyce Live with the Power?

Joyce is certainly not going to walk through Dubois’ shots, and will need to operate sensibly from range. 

The only problem with this is that Dubois has a great jab and keeps a decent pace for a man of his size. You couldn’t say that Joyce’s footwork is anything special, as he pretty much moves in straight lines at the same pace. At some point, he is going to get walked into the ropes and landed on.

Dubois is the fresher of the pair and has a better gas tank than some give him credit for. He is in great physical condition and doesn’t have the same wear and tear that Joyce has from his extensive amateur run.

I can see Dubois making life hard from Joyce from the get-go. He will look to take things into the center of the ring, and chip away at the body with those hooks to the ribs. If he can impose his will early, we might see that money in the bank off pay off as soon as the third round.

I predict an early-ish stoppage for Dubois following some bruising exchanges. My money is on the referee stepping in at some point in the fourth to wave the contest off, and Dubois taking a huge step towards a shot at one of the major world titles.

When Will Dubois Fight Joyce?

I’m feeling confident about Daniel Dubois’ chances against Joe Joyce and predict an early knockout in what should be an all-British heavyweight classic. 

A date for the contest has not yet been confirmed, but it is expected that these two will square off in October. That could all change if the likes of Frank Warren and Richard Schaefer opt for a live crowd, of course. With the current uncertainty surrounding sporting events with spectators, we might have to wait a little longer.

Whatever happens, you can keep up to date with the latest boxing picks right here. There are some big fights in the pipeline, and you can find the best of the previews and picks by hitting the link above. 

Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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