Dominick Reyes vs. Jiri Prochazka – UFC, May 1, 2021

| April 28, 2021 6:31 am PDT

Dominick Reyes and Jiri Prochazka face an impossible task trying to better last week’s action at UFC 261, but don’t expect anything less than fireworks.

If you’re looking to bet on Reyes vs. Prochazka, the difficulty is calling how this one goes. On paper, Reyes should be the favorite. However, Prochazka — a former Rizin FF light heavyweight champion and super gifted striker — is currently the bookies’ favorite to emerge with the win.

I’ll be covering the odds for Reyes vs. Prochazka to identify where the value is in this fight. I’ll also be listing the best bets for UFC on ESPN’s main event this Saturday, May 1, from the UFC APEX. 

No UFC preview for this weekend can be complete without my take on the fight. Stay with me as I make my predictions and betting pick for Reyes vs. Prochazka.

Reyes vs. Prochazka – Who Wins?

  • Jiri Prochazka by KO/TKO

I haven’t taken my predictions for Reyes vs. Prochazka lightly.

Essentially, there are two ways that this fight will go. One, Reyes will drag the Czech to the cards and take the win. Or two, Prochazka will knock Reyes out. Now, the latter is the one I’m leaning towards.

This fight is a tough one to call, as there are pros and cons for both guys in equal measure. But I’ll explain later why the awkward Prochazka is the man to bet on in this fight.

First, let’s cast a glance over the odds for Saturday’s UFC main event.

Latest Odds for Reyes vs. Prochazka

Dominick Reyes to Win+110
Jiri Prochazka to Win-130

If you’re looking to gamble on Reyes to win, you might be surprised to learn he is a moderate underdog with Bovada.

Despite seemingly doing enough to beat Jon Jones in February 2020, Reyes lost the fight. He then proceeded to be knocked out by Jan Blachowicz in his second UFC light heavyweight title shot in September. You can call it recency bias, but the bookies aren’t keen on him bossing this fight.

On the other side of the coin is the Czech. 

The odds for Prochazka to beat Reyes make him a moderate favorite, and the price above will surely appeal to many bettors. Prochazka might not have the level of experience his opponent does in the UFC, but he has more than double the fights Reyes has in MMA. 

More than this, he has the momentum behind him. If he wins on Saturday, he’ll take his growing streak to 12. 

Best Bets for Reyes vs. Prochazka

Prochazka to Win-130
Prochazka to Win in Round 2+550
Fight Won’t Start Round 3-115

If you’re betting Prochazka to win, the price is good enough to back him on the moneyline.

However, if you’re confident that he gets the job done, I’d recommend backing him to win in Round 2. An explosive striker, the Czech’s best chance of winning the fight, comes through his knockout power. But I think Reyes will be patient first and about scrape by to the second stanza.

Regardless of what happens, one of my top predictions for Reyes vs. Prochazka is that the fight will not make it to Round 3. The odds aren’t quite as appealing for this bet compared to betting Prochazka in 2, but I think it’s a very safe one.

Why Prochazka Beats Reyes

Prochazka is still a bit of an enigma when it comes to the top level of MMA.

Sure, he has beaten some good guys over the years, but Reyes is arguably his toughest opponent yet. That did make it difficult to arrive at my betting pick for Prochazka vs. Reyes, but ultimately, the Czech gets the nod.

Although clearly talented, there is an argument to make that Reyes was not as good as we thought.

He raised his game to a level that he might never be able to do again, thus giving the erroneous impression about his true talent.

In other words, his incredible performance against Jon Jones was more of a one-off thing.

You could look to his fight with Jan Blachowicz as a better representation of what Reyes offers. That might sound harsh, but you can’t deny that it makes sense. Style-wise, Prochazka is closer to the incumbent light heavyweight champion than he is Jones. And Reyes, who will be coming back after the first KO loss of his career, will have his work cut out containing the awkward, high-octane striking of the new kid at 205.

My pick for Prochazka vs. Reyes is a KO/TKO in Round 2 for Prochazka.

Betting on UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka

You now have the odds, best bets, as well as my Reyes vs. Prochazka pick for this weekend’s fight.

I’m predicting a win for the former Rizin FF champion in what will be just his second UFC fight. It should be one hell of a bout, but ultimately, he looks primed to take the spoils.

If you’re looking to gamble on Reyes vs. Prochazka, you can find odds for the fight on our recommended sites for betting on UFC fights.

Don’t forget you can find more predictions and picks for more fights on our UFC picks section.

Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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