DePaul Blue Demons vs. Seton Hall Pirates – College Basketball, February 17, 2021

By Dean McHugh in College Basketball
| February 17, 2021 9:32 am PDT

The only thing that the Blue Demons possess this season is the Big East Conference’s worst record. The Pirates could make a play for the top of the standings, but they would virtually have to win all of their remaining games, which makes this a must-win game for them.

And they should be confident of smuggling a win tonight as not only do they hold a better overall record than their opponents tonight, but they have also beaten them on the last three occasions that they have met.

The most recent of those games was last month when they won on the road by 68-76. The Pirates have also won four of the previous five matches at home against the Blue Demons, so their odds look good for picking up another win here.

Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the Pirates have averaged eight more points per game than the Blue Demons, which they beat them by last time out. This has primarily been down to a superior field goal percentage as they have scored at a little under 50%, which would be good in the NBA!

Here are the game odds, my team analysis, and betting prediction.

Blue Demons vs. Pirates Odds

Blue Demons (+13.5) -110
Pirates (-13.5) -110
Blue Demons To Win +775
Pirates To Win -1220
Over 139 Points -110
Under 139 Points -110

The Spread looks at least three points higher than I and most mothers would have expected. The points total looks very low also, so there are multiple markets to explore here.

The odds don’t look great for the Blue Demons as they have only won once all season as the betting outsiders from nine tries. In contrast, the Pirates only lost two of the 11 games they entered as the favorites.

Blue Demons Analysis

The Blue Demons have lost four in a row for the second time this season. On the first occasion that this happened, they managed to win the next game, and they will be hoping for similar fortunes tonight. In all four defeats, they were never beaten by more than 13 points, and they played one or two teams better than their opponents tonight.

They haven’t traveled well and have only won one of their five away fixtures this season.  However, that sole victory came on their second most recent away game against Marquette. It was a dominant performance as they won both halves of the game that night.

Here are the latest betting trends for DePaul:

Bet Type Trend
ATS The Blue Demons are 3-7 in their previous ten games.
Total Their last ten games have all gone under the betting total.
ATS They have won four of their previous six games against Seton Hall.
SU DePaul has only won two of their last 11 matches against the Pirates.
SU They have been awful on the road winning only one of their last 13 games.
ATS The Blue Demons have won five of their previous six games on the road against Seton Hall.
Total Their last five games against teams in the Big East Conference have all gone under the points total.
SU They have lost 13 of their last 14 games played in February.

The two most important things to take from this data are that the Blue Demons have done well with the handicap against the Pirates, and their games, in general, have been low-scoring affairs.

DePaul has an awful attack that can’t shoot this season, making only 41% of their shots. However, they have rebounded well, but God knows where they would be if they didn’t. That doesn’t always matter either if you’re not going to take those second chances. They are averaging only 66 points per game, which is the second-lowest in the Conference this season.

They also don’t pass the ball particularly well and have made the least amount of assists in the Conference. This poor passing often leads to them turning the ball over to their opponents.

Their defense is better but by no means excellent. They press high and do their best to grind their opponents down. This often results in an increased number of personal fouls, so they need to execute this style of play better.

They have defended worse on the road this season by conceding six more points per game on average, which is a worry tonight.

All of the above means that they have the worst point per game difference in the Big East, which stands at -4.2.

The well-traveled Charlie Moore has not had the homecoming he wanted, but he still leads many of his team’s rankings. He returned home to DePaul to be closer to his father, who suffered a stroke. However, he will be hoping to have a better game this time around than he did against the Pirates last time out, as he only managed seven points against them.

However, Junior Javon Freeman-Liberty had no trouble against Seton Hall. He produced one of his best performances of the season against them last time out, scoring an impressive 22 points.

You have to feel slightly for DePaul this season as they have had more games canceled than any other team in the Big East this season, which certainly hasn’t helped with any continuity.

They also have two players missing tonight as well as two who are doubtful. Jacobs and Edwards will miss out, while Moore and Lopez Junior face late fitness tests.

Pirates Analysis

The Pirates followed up their worst run of the season when they lost three games in a row by winning the next three matches. Those three defeats did come against the top two teams in the Conference, so the form is slightly better reading.

At home, Seton Hall has won two-thirds of their nine matches this season. However, two of their three defeats did come just over two weeks ago within the space of three days.

Here are the latest betting trends for Seton Hall:

Bet Type Trend
Total Four of their last six games have gone over the betting total.
SU They have won 11 of their previous 16 games.
Total Only two of their last 11 games against DePaul have failed to go over the points total.
ATS The Pirates have only won one of their previous six games at home.
SU They have won their last six games played in February.
Total Four of their previous six games played on a Wednesday have gone under the points total.
SU Seton Hall has won their last six games in a row that they entered as the betting favorite.

The trends and stats show us that the Pirates are playing well and should be respected favorites in this matchup.

The Pirates have a good offense this season, and if they rebounded better, they would probably be inside the top 100 in the country. They could improve on their poor three-point shooting also as it is amongst the worst in the Conference.

However, their game isn’t based on taking shots from deep; it’s about driving to the basket as much as possible. This makes them the most fouled team in the Conference, and they are certainly making teams pay from the free-throw line.

Their defense is below par, shall we say, and certainly needs some work. Although oddly, their defensive rebounding is probably not one area that does, unlike their offensive rebounding. They are good at blocking, though, and have made the third-highest number of blocks in the Big East this season.

Seton Hall has a decent team, and they have shown that they can be a match for anyone on any given day.

The Pirates only have one injury concern, and that is of their guard Aiken, who is battling a knee injury at present and is questionable to play tonight.

Blue Demons vs. Pirates Betting Pick

Pick
  • Over 139 Points
    -110

The form lines are pointing towards the Blue Demons winning with the handicap, but after analyzing their team and seeing how bad it has been, I can’t bring myself to do that. But I am a man that follows form, so I certainly won’t bet against that either.

I will pick over the points total my selection considering that neither team has the best defense, and they have a combined point average of 150 points in their last ten meetings.

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