Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors – NBA, April 23, 2021

By Dean McHugh in NBA
| April 23, 2021 10:11 am PDT

The Nuggets face the Warriors at the Chase Center tonight in a battle between two of the Western Conference’s big guns. Denver has secured an automatic playoff spot but has very little chance of advancing much further than their current fourth place in the Western Conference.

Therefore, it is all about fine-tuning their game in preparation for the playoffs. Although the Warriors have put daylight between themselves and the Pelicans in the fight for the last pre-playoff berth, they don’t have the luxury of easing up like the Nuggets have. They will also feel there is an outside chance to catch the Mavericks for an automatic playoff place and therefore still have plenty to play in the regular season.

Although the Nuggets are placed higher than the Warriors, it’s Golden State that has enjoyed the better of things between the two recently, having won three of the previous four matchups between them. The most recent of those games was around ten days ago when the Warriors ran our comfortable nine-point victors. The match was an extraordinary one for Stephen Curry in particular as he became the franchise’s all-time leading pointers scorer.

The Warriors have also won six of the last seven home games between these two and, therefore, should be confident of claiming another win tonight. They also boast a seven-point higher average over the pair’s previous ten meetings. This has primarily been down to fast starts as they have averaged five more first-half points than the Nuggets during those games.

The Warriors have also shot much better than the Nuggets during that period as they have a whopping eight percent higher scoring success rate.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds

Nuggets -3 -110
Warriors +3 -110
Nuggets To Win -143
Warriors To Win +135
Over 228 Points -110
Under 228 Points -110

Looking at the betting for this matchup, it appears the bookmakers have priced it up to perfection. When they met ten days ago, the spread was two and a half points bigger than tonight, so the bookmakers are erring on the side of caution tonight.

The Warriors have an outstanding record of 9-3 at home against West Conference opponents this season.

Nuggets News

The Nuggets appear to be putting another good run together after winning their last four games in a row. The previous run they went on spanned over eight matches, and they will be hoping to try and replicate that by keeping the streak alive tonight. Their last two wins have been nail bitters as they beat the Grizzlies by two in overtime and the Trail Blazers by a single point last time out. These types of wins can only serve as good heading into the pressurized playoff matchups.

They have the second-best record on the road in the west this season, having won 18 of their 28 away fixtures. The Nuggets have only lost three of their previous 14 road trips and, therefore, should be confident of turning over the Warriors tonight.

Here are the latest betting trends for Denver:

Bet Type Trend
ATS They have lost five of their previous seven matches.
ATS The Nuggets have only won one of their last seven games against the Warriors.
SU Denver is 2-5 in their previous seven matches against the Warriors.
ATS They have lost four of their last five games against Western Conference teams.
Total Ten of their previous 15 matches against teams based in the Pacific Division jas gone over the betting total.

The Nuggets have one of the best offenses in the league this season, predominately down to their sharp-shooting, where they rank third from the field goal range and fifth from deep.

They even ranked third for most offensive rebounds this season, which means they usually snap the ball up and turn it in any way on the odd occasions they do miss.

Continuing the theme of being ranked third, they are also ranked third for most assists this season which highlights how good they have been with the ball and also explains why they have been so accurate at shooting from all over the court. The big Serbian, Nikola Jokic, has undoubtedly played his hand in helping with this, and he is many people’s favorite to win the MVP race this season.

Their defense has been excellent also despite allowing their opponents to score at 46% from the field goal range. This is what the Warriors have averaged this season so expect to see much the same tonight. However, that still might not be good enough.

Denver will miss Murray and Morris tonight through injury.

Warriors News

Although the Warriors have lost two of their previous three games, if you look at the slightly bigger picture, you can see they have only lost two of their last seven matches. Coincidentally in both defeats against the Celtics and the Wizards, they scored precisely 114-points in each loss.

They have an excellent record of 17-10 from their 27 home games this season. Golden State has only lost one of their last five home games, which came against the Wizards almost two weeks ago. The game was billed as the match involving the two best scorers in the league in Beal and Curry. Although Curry outscored Beal, he had the last laugh scoring six points in the final six seconds to lift the Wizards over the Warriors. Curry and the Warriors haven’t enjoyed playing against Beal and the Wizards as they have now lost two in a row against them within the space of two weeks. The last defeat signaled the end of Curry’s fantastic run of scoring 30-plus points in 11-games straight.

Here are the latest betting trends for Golden State:

Bet Type Trend
ATS The Warriors have won five of their previous seven matches.
Total Four of their last six games have gone under the betting total.
Total Only one of the previous six matches between these teams has failed to go under the points total.
ATS They have won four of their last five games at home.
ATS Golden State is 5-2 in their previous seven matches against teams in the Western Conference.
SU The Warriors have only lost one of their last six games against teams based in the Northwest Division.
Total The total has gone under in four of their last six matches they have entered as the betting underdogs.

The Warriors have an average offense this season that can’t match up to the Nuggets attack. However, they have played better in attack at home this season, averaging an additional three points per game, which will help balance the playing field slightly.

They can also not only match the Nuggets in the passing stakes, but they can better them as they have made more assists than them and any other team this season.

Although their defense is considered inferior this season, it matches up relatively well to the Nugget’s offense. They are strongest where the Nuggets excel in attack, which is the field goal department. They are holding their opponents to a field goal average of 45%, and if they can do that tonight, they would have a real shot of toppling Denver, but that’s a big if!

They will also need to improve upon their dreadful offensive rebounding record as they currently have the lowest average in the league.

They have also defended better at home this season, conceding on average two fewer points per game. Therefore, it’s easy to see why they have done better at home.

However, they will need to keep their discipline in check, especially if they goal behind early, as it often becomes an issue when they do.

The Warriors have a few missing tonight as Thompson, Lee, Paschall, and Wiseman are all ruled out. It remains to be seen if Toscano-Anderson will feature as he suffered a concussion recently and faces a fitness test beforehand.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Pick

Pick
  • Over 228 Points
    -110

I like the Nuggets this season; they are a good, hard-working team with very few weaknesses. However, the Warriors match up with them relatively well and seemingly have more to play for here. They also have a better recent record between the two teams.

Both teams are playing well at present, and I believe they could push each other to produce a big score tonight. I will make over the points total my pick tonight.

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