Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies – NBA, April 14, 2021

By Dean McHugh in NBA
| April 14, 2021 5:30 am PDT

The Mavericks travel to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies in this crunch-time game in the Southwest Division. Dallas leads the Division marginally with the Grizzlies in hot pursuit, and therefore they will want to win tonight to ensure they maintain that lead.

As well as their own individual battle for Divisional supremacy, both teams are trying to chase down the Trail Blazers in the Western Conference to obtain the final automatic playoff berth. With all this going on, it’s easy to see why this is a highly anticipated matchup.

Dallas will be confident of maintaining their lead at the top of the Division, given they have beaten the Grizzlies on four of the last five occasions they have met one another. The last of those meetings with under two months ago when the Mavericks ran out comfortable ten-point winners.

The difference between the two teams on the night was the Grizzlies failed miserably from distance, shooting at under 20%. The Mavericks have also won on their previous two visits to Memphis and therefore hold all the cards this evening.

Let’s look at the betting trends for each team, and then I will provide my Mavericks vs. Grizzlies betting prediction.

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Odds

Mavericks -1.5 -110
Grizzlies +1.5 -110
Mavericks To Win -120
Grizzlies To Win +115
Over 226.5 Points -110
Under 226.5 Points -110

As you would expect from a first versus second Divisional matchup, the betting is very close. However, the points total looks big and could offer some value tonight.

Memphis hasn’t beaten a team in their own Division at home all season long and faces a stiff test tonight.

Mavericks Analysis

After winning five games in a row, the Mavericks have struggled over the past week, having lost three of their previous four matches. Their only win during those four games came against one of the better teams they faced in the form of the Milwaukee Bucks. It was a nip and tuck game, but the Mavericks finished strong and won the final quarter by 19-points to claim the victory.

Their form on the road has been good, having won 16 and lost 12 of their away fixtures this season. They had won four games in a row on the road until the run was halted by the Rockets last time out. They will want to return to winning ways tonight and will have a point to prove after what was described as their worst performance of the season against Houston.

Here are the latest betting trends for Dallas:

  • They are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games.
  • Seven of their previous eight matches have gone under the betting total.
  • The Wizards have only lost one of their last five games against the Grizzlies when betting on the spread.
  • Only one of their previous six road trips has failed to go under the points total.
  • Their last six visits to Memphis have resulted in five wins and one defeat against the spread.
  • They are 7-3 against the spread in their previous ten matches played in April.
  • Dallas has only lost one of their last eight games played on a Wednesday.

The signs point towards a low-scoring victory for the Mavericks tonight.

For a team-leading a Division, you would think the Mavericks would have a better offense than they do as it’s currently sub-standard compared to other teams in the league. Despite that, they have shot reasonably well throughout the season and have a respectable field goal percentage of 46%.

However, their offensive rebounding has been poor this season and is amongst the worst in the NBA, which is why they have failed to trouble the scoreboard regularly. This is probably down to the fact they prefer to drive the ball to the basket, which is why they haven’t made many assists but have a low turnover count.

Their defense has been excellent and has been the key to many victories this season.

However, they can improve upon areas, like making more steals, as they currently have the lowest average in the league.

Luka Doncic remains the main man for the Mavericks this season, and although they haven’t performed well as of late, his performances haven’t waned. In fact, over the last four games, his personal points tally has got bigger each game, proving that he can perform whether the team plays well or not.

Dallas only has one player missing tonight, and that will be point guard Terry, who is out due to personal reasons.

Grizzlies Analysis

The Grizzlies come into this game in good form, having won five of their previous seven matches. The two games they lost were against the Knicks in overtime and the Pacers. The thing that stands out about those games is they were both very high-scoring. Their five wins during this time all involved much lower scores, and therefore, they will want to keep things tight tonight.

Memphis has been below par at home this season as they have a negative record of 13-15 from their 28 home games. They have been very inconsistent at home as of late, as only once has the result followed the previous one in their last 11 matches.

Here are the latest betting trends for Memphis:

  • The Grizzlies have won 11 of their previous 14 matches against the spread.
  • Four of their last five games have gone over the betting total.
  • The total has gone under in eight of their previous 12 games against the Mavericks.
  • They have won five of their last six games against the spread when playing at home.
  • The total has gone under in ten of their previous 15 matches against Western Conference opposition.
  • Memphis is 4-9 in their last 13 games against teams based in the Southwest Division.

The above data confirms how inconsistent the Grizzlies have been this season. It also highlights the fact that the bookmakers have underestimated them quite a bit recently.

The Grizzlies have an average-looking offense that has failed more often than not from three-point range as they did last time out against the Mavericks.

They have excelled on the boards in attack as they have the second-best average in the league. Therefore, this is an area they will look to exploit this evening, given how poor the Mavericks have been at rebounding this season. Veteran Jonas Valanciunas has led the way in this department, and the large Lithuanian is rewriting the record books for the Grizzlies this season.

Memphis also pass the ball very well, and they will hope to stretch the Maverick’s solid defense where possible this evening.

However, their attack hasn’t fired at home this season as they have averaged three fewer points per game in Memphis.

Their defense has been marginally better and has conceded on average 111-points per game, which coincidently is how much the Mavericks are scoring on average per game.

Another area they should win is making more steals than the Mavericks as they lead the league for steals this season. With them making more steals and more rebounds, they will hope to see a lot of the ball here.

Unlike their opponents, the Grizzlies have a few missing tonight as Winslow, Melton, and Jackson Junior are out through injuries. However, they are hopeful Porter will return for tonight’s matchup.

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Betting Pick

Pick
  • Under 226.5 Points
    -110

This is a close game to call and is what you would expect from a top-of-the-league clash. The Grizzlies will likely see a lot of the ball tonight, given they are better at rebounding and make many more steals. A low-scoring game tends to suit their style of play as they tend to lose high-scoring games more often than not, which highlights their lack of ability in attack.

In all honesty, neither offense excites me too much, and therefore I will pick under the points total here. This is also backed up by the fact that they have averaged a combined total of 214-points in their previous ten meetings, and both of the last two matchups have gone under the total set here tonight.

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