Croatia vs. France – Nations League, October 14, 2020

France took a while to get going when these two sides met in Paris at the beginning of September. But the final outcome was fairly one-sided and Didier Deschamps will be looking for a repeat performance on Wednesday.

Croatia seems to be very inconsistent at the moment and this game is therefore difficult to call. But a win is needed here if it is to stand any chance of topping the group.

It is interesting to see that BetOnline has declined to make France odds on favorites to win this one and that means that there must be some value in the away win bet. But Croatia is always a tough opponent at home and it will feel as though it should be able to finish with at least a draw.

A late winner from Hoffenheim striker Andrej Kramaric won Croatia the points on Sunday as it overcame bottom of the group Sweden in Zagreb – and more of that fighting spirit will be needed if three more are to be taken from France. Croatia just about deserved the victory but the World champions will be a sterner test.

This Nations League campaign started off badly for Croatia, as it faced its most difficult fixtures first – namely Portugal and France away from home. But now it is still in with a chance with three games left to play. Topping a group with those two powerhouses seems almost impossible, but a win here would change the look of the table completely.

France will be disappointed that it was unable to break down the Portugal defense on Sunday, especially with the amount of possession it had in the second half. But there will also be the thought that Cristiano Ronaldo should really have won the game for his side right at the end. So a point that keeps France level at the top will probably be welcomed.

Although Croatia took the lead in Paris in September, the French win was very comprehensive and Didier Deschamps will hope that his players can raise themselves one more time in this grueling three-game international break to overcome what could turn out to be a determined Croatia team.

I think this game will be much closer than the reverse fixture earlier in the campaign – and could well be decided by a single goal as two weary sides play their third game in a week. Although I was therefore going to go for the draw bet, I do think the odds offered for a France win are probably too good to turn down.