Colts vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

| September 30, 2021 2:07 pm PDT

Indianapolis heads to Miami in week 4 for what should be a closely contested matchup. I said closely contested; I didn’t say enthralling.

Carson Wentz vs. Jacoby Brissett has a nice storyline behind it (the Colts released Brissett to pave the way for Wentz’s arrival in the offseason), but this is a battle between two bottom-tier QBs. Hence, the total is sitting at a measly 42.5 points.

The betting sites have installed the Phins as a slight favorite, but the best way to spice up the action in South Beach is to attack the player prop bets.

Staying on that theme, here are my five best Colts vs. Dolphins props to target in week 4.

Jacoby Brissett Over 31.5 Passing Attempts (-110)

In a perfect world, Brian Flores would love to pound the ball on Sunday with Myles Gaskin and Malcolm Brown. The problem is that the Dolphins are more likely to play catch-up than build a big league.

That means more dropback opportunities for Jacoby Brissett.

Through the first three weeks, Miami ranks 7th in the NFL in pass-play percentage (65.0%).

Perhaps this number is a bit skewed from getting clobbered by Buffalo, but the fact remains that Miami doesn’t have a good enough offensive line to confidently run the ball between the tackles.  

Jacoby relieved Tua in week 2 and still got off 40 throws; Brissett chucked it 49 times in week 3 against the Raiders. Suspecting he attempts more than 31 passes at home against his former team, that seems like a fairly reasonable assumption.

Jaylen Waddle Over 3.5 Receptions (-170)

I was flabbergasted to see Jaylen Waddle’s line for receptions in week 4 set at 3.5. I was expecting to see 5.5 and was just checking how much juice I had to lay. At just 3.5 catches, this has to be one of the best Colts vs. Dolphins player prop bets.

Have a quick glance at Waddle’s current pace.

Jaylen Waddle – By the Numbers
Date Opponent Targets Receptions Receiving Yards Snap %
9/12/21 @ Patriots 4 5 61 80%
9/19/21 vs. Bills 6 8 48 64%
9/26/21 @ Raiders 12 13 58 88%

Not only is he gaining targets each time out, but the kid is sporting a spiffy 84.6% catch rate (22/26) as a rookie. Given, a lot of his targets have a short aDOT (average depth of target), but that’s just another reason he’s likely to catch more than three passes on Sunday.

Book the over here and don’t look back.

Mike Gesicki Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Tua Tagovailoa’s injury might not be good news for the Miami Dolphins’ chances moving forward. However, it could be a blessing in disguise for Mike Gesicki fantasy owners. Gesicki registered 0 catches on just three targets with Tua in week 1.

In week 2, with Brissett under center, the Dolphins’ tight end caught three balls for 41 yards on 6 targets. The following week in Vegas (also with Brissett playing quarterback), Mike hauled in 10 of 12 targets for 86 yards.

After watching Jacoby play quarterback over the years, it’s evident that stretching the field with his wide receivers isn’t his forte. He prefers to use his feet and pepper his running backs and tight ends with targets. Gesicki should have no problem producing at a consistent rate as long as Brissett is under center.

Zach Pascal Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Michael Pittman Jr. is the alpha in the Colts wide receivers’ room. The Bible narrative he’s got going on with Carson Wentz is genuine, not to mention, he’s the most skilled WR Indy has on its roster. Parris Campbell returned from an abdomen injury last week and played 80% of the snaps.

Both Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor are heavily involved in the passing game, plus you got Jack Doyle and Mo Allie-Cox sniping away some targets. In a high-octane offense, there might be plenty to go around for a guy like Zach Pascal. In an offense that’s limited by a battered offensive line and paltry play under center, not so much.

Pascal’s logged fewer than 45 receiving yards in each of the first three weeks, going up against weak secondaries such as the Seahawks and Titans.

Miami’s back end has playmakers everywhere you look. They should have no issues keeping Pascal contained.

Top Colts vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bet for Week 4

  • Nyheim Hines Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

Nyheim Hines played 45% of the offensive snaps in week 1. He’s played the identical number of offensive snaps as Jonathan Taylor over the past two weeks, including out-snapping the latter the last time out. Hines ranks third on the team in targets (16) and averages 39.7 receiving yards per game.

Hines isn’t some afterthought who gets a couple of touches per game. Nyheim’s fully integrated into the Colts offensive game plan. Hence, he was rewarded with an $18.6 million extension on the eve of the regular season.

Worth noting, Derek Carr targeted running backs 11 times last week against this same Miami defense. The duo of Kenyan Drake and Peyton Barber combined for six catches for 64 yards.

As much as Wentz loves to check it down to his RBs, it’s hard to imagine Nyheim falling short of surpassing 23 receiving yards in week 4. Once you add everything up, this is my favorite of all the Colts vs. Dolphins player props.

For a peek at my Colts vs. Dolphins prediction, check out the link below.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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