Upset Picks for This Week’s College Football Games – October 3, 2020
Typically, casual fans love to hammer the favorites. It’s generally the sharps who get on the underdogs.
When it comes to making money betting college football online, wouldn’t you rather align with the latter?
After witnessing a handful of upsets, including a couple of big ones last week in Death Valley and Norman, it’s not a bad idea to take a shot on a few fliers. With that in mind, here are my best college football upset picks for Saturday.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+105)
Southern Miss arrives in Denton as a 1.5-point underdog versus the Mean Green. It’s true that the Golden Eagles are 0-3 and are coming off of a beatdown at the hands of Tulane, but hang on a second.
What the heck has North Texas done to warrant being a favorite?
Seth Littrell’s bunch just got torched by SMU on this very same field – and I mean, torched. The Mustangs scored 65 points and racked up 710 yards of offense. North Texas committed 13 penalties, and don’t forget how bad their defense looked in their opener. Some guy named Bailey Zappe from Houston Baptist threw for 480 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.
I don’t have a ton of faith in Southern Miss as a whole, but I trust them a lot more than North Texas. The Mean Green are employing a platoon at quarterback and are 4-9 against the spread at home since the beginning of 2018. Yuck.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (+138)
If you like fading the public, this is a dreamy spot. Coastal Carolina is getting 3 points at home versus Arkansas State on Saturday, and the spread consensus pick on ESPN reflects 66% of the picks are on the Red Wolves.
However, I’m not the only one who expects the Chanticleers to win this game outright.
ESPN’s matchup predictor pegged Coastal Carolina to beat Arkansas State in 54.9% of simulations.
The Chanticleers already smoked Kansas by 15 despite closing as a 4.5-point underdog, proving that Jamey Chadwell is quietly coaching a very underrated team. I was on Coastal Carolina then, and I’m going back to the well in Conway, South Carolina again.
West Virginia Mountaineers (+128)
West Virginia and Baylor clash on Saturday afternoon in Morgantown in a classic Big 12 tilt that could go either way. Baylor’s sitting as a 2.5-point favorite as of Thursday evening, but I fancy West Virginia’s chances of pulling off the upset.
Baylor looked sharp last week in their opener — but who doesn’t look sharp playing at home versus the Jayhawks? Dave Aranda’s offensive line is going to have a lot harder time setting the edge against a hungry Mountaineers team. As good as Chuba Hubbard and the Cowboys front line is, West Virginia was able to penetrate the gaps and record six tackles for loss last Saturday.
The Mountaineers can learn from the mistakes they made in Stillwater, and Winston Wright Jr. should be able to get open at will.
Playing just their second game under the Dave Aranda/Larry Fedora regime, the squad from Waco is in for their first wake-up call of the season.