Upset Picks for This Week’s College Football Games – October 17, 2020
Texas A&M wasn’t supposed to beat Florida last Saturday. LSU was a massive favorite against Missouri and lost the game outright.
Upsets are bound to happen, the key is determining where and when.
After scoping the October 17th slate, here are my best college football upset picks of the week.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+140)
The Golden Hurricane for real – as evidenced by snapping UCF’s 21-game winning streak at Bounce House last time out. After playing the Cowboys in Stillwater and the Knights in Orlando, Philip Montgomery and his squad will be thrilled to finally play a game at Chapman Stadium.
On the other end of the “spectrum,” Cincinnati has only played at home and is coming off a game against hapless South Florida. Traveling to Tulsa to face stiff competition – my gut tells me the Bearcats are in for a rude awakening.
Remember, Tulsa’s D held an explosive Oklahoma State offense to just 16 points before knocking off Dillon Gabriel and company. Knowing the ESPN’s Matchup Predictor projects the Golden Hurricane win over 59% of the time, I’m loving the +140 price tag available at Bovada.
East Carolina Pirates (+110)
Back to the Matchup Predictor on ESPN. While it isn’t the be-all and end-all, it’s quite intriguing to see East Carolina plugged in at 61.5% to win the game. Lurking at +110 to emerge at home, I’m all over this college football upset pick.
Anyone who dreaded that the Midshipmen’s triple-option attack would suffer on the heels of Malcolm Perry’s departure – your worst fears have been confirmed.
Navy is averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per carry and they still can’t throw the football. The following tweet helps shine a light on just how stagnant this offense is.
Navy's final offensive drive that set up the Nichols field goal is statistically incredible: Took 9:06 off the clock, ran 15 plays, and gained 26 yards.— Scott Strasemeier (@ScottStras) October 11, 2020
Hence, this group got torched by BYU, 55-3, and was assaulted by Air Force, 40-7.
The Pirates can at least move the football having scored at least 28 points in each of their games. ECU’s biggest shortcoming is defending against the pass – which bodes well in a contest versus a team that is allergic to airing it out.
All in all, I think the wrong team is favored in Greenville.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+135)
As you are searching for upset picks in college football this week, don’t look past the matchup in Winston-Salem. Virginia and Wake Forest can both say they got whooped by Clemson – big deal.
However, the Cavaliers got punked by NC State in Charlottesville. The Demon Deacons had to play the Wolfpack in Raleigh and only lost by three. In fact, WF led NC State midway through the fourth quarter.
Why else do I think Wake Forest is suited to pull off this upset?
Well, Sam Hartman and the Deacons offense built up confidence hanging a 66-spot against Campbell the last time they took the field. That was at home on October 2nd where the team has since been resting. Virginia played last Saturday and are must travel to Truist Field.
Finally, it’s another glaring discrepancy according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. Virginia might be the slight favorite, but Wake Forest triumphs in 66.4% of simulations.