Clay Guida vs. Mark Madsen Betting Preview for UFC Vegas 34

| August 18, 2021 12:08 pm PDT

Octagon veteran Clay Guida takes on Mark Madsen on the co-main of Saturday’s UFC Vegas 34 fight card at the Apex in Las Vegas. 

If you’re betting on Guida vs. Madsen, I’ll be talking you through what there is to know about this lightweight scrap in this betting preview of the fight.

The is an odd one for a co-main, given that neither guy fits the bill of an all-action fighter. With that said, it’s a very interesting prospect for bettors looking to make money on the lastest odds for Guida vs. Madsen. 

I’ve provided some analysis with my top picks for the fight, so stay tuned for those. First, let’s get a sense of where the betting value is before I make my predictions for Guida vs. Madsen. 

Guida vs. Madsen Odds for UFC Vegas 34

Mark Madsen to Win-170
Clay Guida to Win+140

Mark Madsen’s odds to beat Clay Guida opened at -250.

However, those have come down significantly, with bettors looking to “The Carpenter” to pull another upset out of the bag.

Although I correctly predicted that the +285 Guida would beat Michael Johnson (-350) in February, I don’t see his style being as effective this weekend.

Guida’s odds for UFC Vegas 34 are +140. In terms of value, there’s simply nothing to speak of.

Madsen at -170 seems just about good enough to take here. But I believe there is scope to check out the UFC Vegas 34 prop odds on our recommended UFC betting sites, although perhaps not many for this particular fight. 

I’ll get to my betting picks for Guida vs. Madsen after making my prediction for the fight. So, let’s get that covered first. 

Predicting Guida vs. Madsen

  • Winner: Mark Madsen
  • Predicted Method of Victory: Decision

This matchup of styles looks very bad for Clay Guida.

Set to turn 40 in December, the inaugural Strikeforce lightweight champion is coming to the end of his career. With a record of 36-20, it’s clear that he has a lot of mileage on the clock.

Although a solid wrestler, Madsen (10-0 MMA) is an Olympic silver medalist in the Greco-Roman discipline. It’s unlikely that Guida lacks the power that will prevent the Dane from coming forward and pretty much having his way with takedowns en route to dominance on the mat.

It’s going to be a long night for Guida, and I just can’t see him finding a way past “The Olympian.”

Top Bets to Place on Guida vs. Madsen

Madsen to Win-170
Madsen to Win by Decision+120

Making picks for the Guida vs. Madsen bout was never going to present tons of opportunities.

There are many props for UFC Vegas 34 that are worth betting on. I’d keep it simple in this fight as neither are tremendous strikers or exceptionally weak in any particular area.

On that basis, I’d recommend betting on Mark Madsen to win by decision. The odds are good and would slot in on any UFC Vegas 34 parlays, for example.

My second betting tip for the Guida-Madsen fight is to go for the Danish Olympian to win by decision. If you’re betting solely on this one, +120 is a solid price for a fight that should end this way.

Why Madsen Beats Guida

Madsen hasn’t got the best resume but is still unbeaten in his MMA career. 

Looking at his opponent, Guida, it’s not exactly the toughest fight he is ever going to have. If anything, his style is perfect for the UFC veteran, and it’s a fight he really should be winning. 

Guida has been hovering around the underside of the lightweight rankings since moving back up to 155 in 2017. He’s 4-3 since then, with his losses coming to Bobby Green, Jim Miller, and Charles Olivera. Nothing to be ashamed of at all.

He put on a great display of wrestling against Michael Johnson in his last fight, as predicted. But this time around, he faces a guy that is more than capable of negating him on the ground.

I don’t expect this fight to be an exciting one. There might be brief flashes of madness, but for the most part, it’ll be Madsen wearing Guida down en route to grinding out the decision.

Guida will, unfortunately, be ineffective for the most part. This means that Madsen is likely to bag the unanimous decision.

More UFC Vegas 34 Predictions

That’s all for my predictions and betting tips for Clay Guida vs. Mark Madsen ahead of the fights this Saturday, August 21.

The fight serves as the co-main event to Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum at the top of the bill. Make sure to check my predictions and pick for Cannonier vs. Gastelum if you’re gambling on that fight. 

I also have predictions for all fights at UFC Vegas 34, with the top picks for the night available to read below. 

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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