Churchill Downs Picks – Saturday, September 19, 2020

Churchill Downs continues the weekend with a Saturday filled with maiden, claiming, and allowance races. Competitors can expect perfect weather for a race day, with sunny skies, highs in the low 70s, and a breeze around eight mph.

Here are my picks, predictions, and tips for the three richest races at Churchill Downs today.

This is an allowance optional claiming race for three-year-old fillies running a distance of six furlongs for a purse of $79,000.

This may be the tightest race on today’s race card, but I find I like the third-favored (5/2) entry here—Fair Maiden, with Corey J. Lanerie in the irons. This filly moneyed four of her five career starts, winning two of them. For the record, all entries in this field have won exactly two races.

At 15/1, I see some value in a show bet on Elle Z, ridden by Gerardo Corrales. This filly—like most of her competition, moneyed twice in four starts, both of them wins.

This is a maiden special weight race for two-year-old fillies running a distance of one mile for a purse of $75,000.

I’m sticking with the 2/1 morning line favorite—Patty H, with Florent Geroux in the irons. This filly moneyed both of her career starts.

There are a few longish-odds entries in this race, but all of them are destined to show up late for the party, so let’s keep our longshot money in our wallets.

This is an allowance race for fillies and mares three years old and upward running a distance of one mile on turf for a purse of $77,000.

I believe I will follow the morning line’s advice in this race as well, and back the 5/2 favorite, Golden Curl, ridden by Declan Cannon. This four-year-old filly finished in the money five of her seven career starts, winning one.

At 10/1, Loving Moment, with top jockey Florent Geroux aboard, is a value show bet. This five-year-old mare moneyed seven of her 13 career starts, winning one.

Churchill Downs was a bit sparse on the value bets, but I found plenty at these other two tracks: