Churchill Downs Picks – Thursday, November 5, 2020
Churchill Downs features a ten-race card for Thursday that includes maiden, allowance, claiming, and starter matches.
For those keeping a wary eye on the turf matches, the weather remains dry, although there is a slight chance for rain on Thursday. Expect partly cloudy skies, highs in the upper 60s, and mild winds around seven mph.
Read on for my Churchill Downs picks and betting tips for Thursday’s richest races.
Picks for Churchill Downs Race 5
This is an allowance race for fillies and mares three years old and upward running a distance of 1-1/8 miles for a purse of $87,000.
I’m backing the 2/1 morning line favorite for this race—Tempers Rising, with Julien Leparoux in the irons. This three-year-old filly finished in the money for eight of her 12 career starts, winning one.
Two entries share the longest odds in this race (10/1), and I just don’t see a money finish in the cards for either of those two. In fact, you’d be far likelier to win with a trifecta of Tempers Rising, Market Rumor, and Enjoyitwhilewecan.
Market Rumor, ridden by Chris Landeros, moneyed four of her eight career starts, and Enjoyitwhilewecan, with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, finished in the money six of her ten starts.
- Win: Tempers Rising 2/1
- Trifecta: Tempers Rising, Market Rumor, Enjoyitwhilewecan (3-2-5)
Picks for Churchill Downs Race 6
This is a maiden special weight race for two-year-old fillies running a distance of one mile on turf for a purse of $85,000.
The morning line thinks two entries in this race are just as likely to win (both at 3/1), but I think Let’s Skedaddle, with Julien Leparoux aboard, has the advantage. This filly actually has a record: Two money finishes in two career starts.
Handicapping maiden races for two-year-olds is, I believe, one of the things you are required to do in either the sixth or seventh circle of Hell. That said, I’m looking at the 15/1 Sweet Workout, with Robbie Albarado aboard, as a value show bet. While she has no record of starts, Sweet Workout has performed better at longer distances in recent workouts than Let’s Skedaddle’s 3/1 co-favorite, Rebuff.
- Win: Let’s Skedaddle 3/1
- Show: Sweet Workout 15/1
Picks for Churchill Downs Race 9
This is an allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of one mile on turf for a purse of $95,000.
I’m going with the 7/2 underdog Mr. Misunderstood, with Florent Geroux in the irons. This six-year-old gelding moneyed 22 of his 31 career starts, winning 13 of them.
At 15/1, I like Jasikan, ridden by Corey J. Lanerie, for a value show wager. This four-year-old Irish import moneyed five of his eight starts, three of them wins.
- Win: Mr. Misunderstood 7/2
- Show: Jasikan 15/1
More Thursday Picks and Predictions
I found more underdogs and longshots at the other two tracks I reviewed for Thursday: