Churchill Downs Picks – Saturday, November 21, 2020
Churchill Downs brings us the Chilukki Stakes (Grade III) and nine other maiden and claiming races for Saturday.
While I review the Chilukki Stakes and two of the maiden races at Churchill Downs, you can find their entire Saturday race-card — including entries, jockeys, morning line odds, and wagering options — at one of our top horse racing betting sites.
Read on for my Churchill Downs picks and betting tips for Saturday’s richest three races.
Pick for Churchill Downs Race 6
This is a maiden special weight race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of one mile for a purse of $85,000.
I’m betting on the second-favored (7/2) entry in this race — Aasr, with Florent Geroux in the irons. This three-year-old colt hasn’t raced since 2019 (when he had two unproductive starts), but his recent workouts at longer distances are impressive.
The longest morning line odds in this race are 12/1 , and that isn’t going to happen.
- Win: Aasr 7/2
Picks for Churchill Downs Race 8
This is a maiden special weight race for two-year-old fillies running a distance of 6-1/2 furlongs for a purse of $85,000.
My money is on one of the third-favored entry (there are three at 4/1, including an also-eligible) in this race — Three Tipsy Chix, with Julien Leparoux aboard. This filly moneyed one of her two career starts and shows solid performance in her recent workouts.
At 12/1, Bel Fiore, ridden by Tyer Gaffalione, might be a bit riskier than I usually like for value show bet recommendations, but against this field, I can’t resist her record of one money finish in two starts and her respectable times in recent workouts.
- Win: Three Tipsy Chix 4/1
- Show: Bel Fiore 12/1
Picks for Churchill Downs Race 9 – Chilukki Stakes (Grade III)
This is the Grade III Chilukki Stakes, a race for fillies and mares three years old and upward running a distance of one mile for a purse of $100,000.
I’m sticking with the 8/5 morning line favorite for this stakes race — Finite, with Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the irons. This three-year-old filly finished in the money for eight of her ten career starts, winning five of them.
There’s one horse in this field with a better record — the third-favored (4/1) Whoa Nellie, ridden by Joseph Rocco, Jr. — but her record of nine money finishes in ten starts with five wins isn’t enough of an edge to get past her jockey’s declining win/WPS stats for the past few years.
At 50/1, I have to like Crazy Sexy Munny for a value show bet here. This four-year-old filly moneyed 17 of her 23 career starts, with 11 wins. In fact, you might consider an across the board here.
- Win: Finite 8/5
- Show/Across the Board: Crazy Sexy Munny 50/1
More Saturday Picks and Predictions
Churchill Downs came through for us on underdogs and longshot moneymakers, and I found more investment opportunities at the other two tracks I reviewed for Saturday: