Churchill Downs Picks – Wednesday, November 18, 2020

| November 17, 2020 12:45 pm PDT

Churchill Downs starts its racing week on Wednesday with a nine-race card full of maiden, starter, claiming, and allowance races.

I review the three richest races at Churchill Downs here, but you can find their entire Wednesday race-card at one of our recommended horse racing betting sites.

Read on for my Churchill Downs picks and tips for Wednesday’s richest races.

Pick for Churchill Downs Race 4

This is a maiden special weight race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of 1-3/8 miles for on turf for a purse of $85,000.

My money is on the 5/2 morning line favorite — Reigning Spirit, with Colby Hernandez in the irons. This colt moneyed two of his four career starts.

There are several longshots in this race, including a couple of 50/1 never-gonna-happens, but the idea here is to win money, not lose money, so let’s keep it in our wallets, m’kay?

  • Win: Reigning Spirit 5/2

Pick for Churchill Downs Race 5

This is a starter allowance claiming race for two-year-old fillies running a distance of seven furlongs for a purse of $40,500.

I’m sticking with the morning line here, as well, and buying a win ticket on the 5/2 favorite — Dash to the Top, with Gabriel Saez aboard. This filly moneyed three of her four career starts, winning one. Her only non-money finish was a fourth place in the Rags to Riches Overnight Stakes (Black Type) at Churchill Downs in October.

The only longish odds in this race are 15/1, and while that might actually happen, the odds would need to be longer than that to make it worth the risk against this field.

  • Win: Dash to the Top 5/2

Picks for Churchill Downs Race 8

This is an allowance optional claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward running a distance of one mile on turf for a purse of $89,000.

This race looks very close, depending on whether it runs on turf or switches to the main track, but I’m going to back the morning line’s 2/1 turf favorite — Bacchanalia, ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. This four-year-old filly moneyed four of her six career starts, winning four.

If Bacchanalia does not start — and the 2/1 also-eligible Figure It Out does, then bet Figure It Out, with James Graham at the reins, to win. This four-year-old filly finished in the money ten of her 16 starts, winning five.

The longest odds in this race are 12/1, which are not nearly long enough to warrant a bet against the rest of this field.

  • Win: Bacchanalia 2/1 (if starts)
  • Win: Figure It Out 2/1 (otherwise)

More Wednesday Predictions

I found plenty more underdogs and long-odds moneymakers at the other two tracks I reviewed for Wednesday:

J.W. Paine

J.W. Paine is one of the most experienced writers at GamblingSites.com. He's written for television and the printed media, and is a published novelist (as Tom Elliott).

Paine loves writing about Las Vegas nearly as much he loves living here. An experienced gambler, he's especially familiar with thoroughbred horseracing, poker, blackjack, and slots.

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