Churchill Downs Picks – Saturday, November 14, 2020

| November 13, 2020 12:41 pm PDT

Churchill Downs headlines the Grade II Mrs. Revere Stakes on its 11-race card of maiden, claiming, and allowance matches for Saturday.

Remember that while I review the three richest races at Churchill Downs, you can find their entire Saturday race-card at one of our top online racebooks.

Now, read on for my Churchill Downs picks and betting tips for Saturday’s richest races.

Picks for Churchill Downs Race 7

This is an allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of 5-1/2 furlongs on turf for a purse of $89,000.

Whether this race will run on turf or switch to the main track is what will dictate the win choice here. If this run stays on turf, then go with the 5/2 favorite Born Great, with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. If the race moves to the main track, then buy a win ticket on the 5/2 Explorer, ridden by Florent Geroux.

Born Great, a four-year-old gelding, moneyed three of his four career starts, winning two. The five-year-old gelding, Explorer, finished in the money six of his seven starts, winning two.

Oddly enough, there will almost certainly be a viable 50/1 value show bet prospect in this race, regardless of surface. Buy a show ticket on whichever one winds up starting: Maniacal, ridden by Aaron J. Court, or Cousin Dario, with Albin Jimenez aboard. If both start, go with Cousin Dario.

Maniacal, a seven-year-old gelding, moneyed 19 of his 30 of his career starts, winning seven. The five-year-old Cousin Dario had ten money finishes in his 17 starts and he won three of those. Show bet only, of course.

  • Win: Explorer 5/2 (if starts)
  • Win: Born Great 5/2 (otherwise)
  • Show: Maniacal 50/1 (if starts)
  • Show: Cousin Dario 50/1 (otherwise)

Picks for Churchill Downs Race 9

This is an allowance race for fillies and mares three years old and upward running a distance of one mile for a purse of $87,000.

I’m backing the 8/5 morning line favorite, Ocean Breeze, ridden by Joseph Talamo. This three-year-old filly moneyed five of her six career starts, winning one. What sets her above the second-favored Palio Flag (who moneyed all three of her starts) is that Ocean Breeze has moneyed in two stakes races (as well as the usual assortment of maiden and allowance matches), whereas Palio Flag has not.

At 15/1, Champagne Horizon, with Rafael Bejarano aboard, is a great show ticket value. This four-year-old filly finished in the money nine of her 14 career starts, winning four. You might even consider an across the board wager here, but I’m only recommending the value show bet.

  • Win: Ocean Breeze 8/5
  • Show: Champagne Horizon 15/1

Pick for Churchill Downs Race 10 — Mrs. Revere Stakes

This is the Mrs. Revere Stakes (Grade II), a race for three-year-old fillies running a distance of 1-1/16 miles on turf for a purse of $200,000.

I’m going with one of the second-favored entries (there are two at 3/1) — Princess Grace, with Florent Geroux in the irons. This filly moneyed all three of her career starts, winning two.

Longest odds in this race are 15/1, and that isn’t going to happen, so save your money.

  • Win: Princess Grace 3/1

More Saturday Predictions

You’ll find more underdogs and longshot moneymakers at the other two tracks I reviewed for Saturday:

J.W. Paine

J.W. Paine is one of the most experienced writers at GamblingSites.com. He's written for television and the printed media, and is a published novelist (as Tom Elliott).

Paine loves writing about Las Vegas nearly as much he loves living here. An experienced gambler, he's especially familiar with thoroughbred horseracing, poker, blackjack, and slots.

More Posts by J.W. Contact J.W.

LEAVE YOUR COMMENT

*

Back to top