Churchill Downs Picks – Thursday, November 12, 2020

| November 11, 2020 12:58 pm PDT

Churchill Downs brings us a ten-race card for Thursday that includes maiden, claiming, and allowance matches on turf and on the main track.

I review the three richest races at Churchill Downs, but you can find their entire Thursday schedule — including entries, morning line odds, jockeys, and wagering options — at one of our top online racebooks.

Read on for my Churchill Downs picks and betting tips for Thursday’s richest races.

Pick for Churchill Downs Race 7

This is an allowance optional claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward running a distance of one mile for a purse of $89,000.

I’m going with the third-favored (7/2) entry in this race — French Empire, with Rafael Bejarano in the irons. This five-year-old mare moneyed seven of her 11 career starts, winning three.

Why didn’t I go with the better horse, Chance to Shine? Because her jockey is Joseph Rocco, Jr., who even in a good year is not particularly good. And this is not a good year.

Incidentally, the longest odds in this race are 8/1, and I don’t see that happening.

  • Win: French Empire 7/2

Picks for Churchill Downs Race 8

This is a maiden special weight race for two-year-old fillies running a distance of six furlongs for a purse of $85,000.

I’m sticking with the 3/1 morning line favorite here — Zoom Up, with David Cohen aboard. This filly finished third for her single career start back in October at Keeneland, and her performance in recent workouts is good in comparison to the rest of the field.

If you’re looking for a value show bet, you could do worse than the 20/1 longshot Antecedence, ridden by veteran jockey Albin Jimenez. This filly has no record of starts but has performed well enough in recent workouts to suggest she can finish this race in the money.

  • Win: Zoom Up 3/1
  • Show: Antecedence 20/1

Picks for Churchill Downs Race 9

This is an allowance race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of 1-1/16 miles on turf for a purse of $87,000.

It’s my estimation that Tyler Gaffalione is riding the winner in this race, whether it be aboard the second-favored (4/1) Perjury Trap or the also-eligible Glory Road (3/1).

The three-year-old colt Perjury Trap moneyed three of his four career starts, winning one, while the three-year-old gelding Glory Road finished in the money two of his four start, also winning one.

As for long odds value bets, try the 20/1 Parkland, ridden by Joseph Talamo. This four-year-old gelding moneyed three of his five career starts, winning one. Show ticket only.

  • Win: Perjury Trap 4/1 (if starts)
  • Win: Glory Road 3/1 (otherwise)
  • Show: Parkland 20/1

More Thursday Tips, Picks, and Predictions

There are plenty more underdogs and longshot surprises at the other two tracks I reviewed:

J.W. Paine
J.W. Paine

J.W. Paine is one of the most experienced writers at GamblingSites.com. He's written for television and the printed media, and is a published novelist (as Tom Elliott).

Paine loves writing about Las Vegas nearly as much he loves living here. An experienced gambler, he's especially familiar with thoroughbred horseracing, poker, blackjack, and slots.

More Posts by J.W. Contact J.W.

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