Churchill Downs Picks – Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Churchill Downs’ nine-race card for Wednesday includes maiden, claiming, and allowance matches on turf and on the main track.
While I review the three richest races at Churchill Downs here, remember that you can always find their entire race-card — including entries, morning line odds, jockeys, and betting options — at one of our recommended horseracing betting sites.
Read on for my Churchill Downs picks and tips for Wednesday’s richest races.
Picks for Churchill Downs Race 7
This is an allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of 1-1/16 miles for a purse of $89,000.
I’m going to take the morning line’s advice and buy a win ticket on the 5/2 favorite — Two Thirty Five, with Gabriel Saez in the irons. This six-year-old gelding finished in the money 16 of his 27 career starts, winning six of them.
At 12/1, Nepal Up, with Corey Lanerie aboard, looks like a value show ticket. This four-year-old colt moneyed five of his 11 career starts, winning two. His record for 2020 is better, with four money finishes in seven starts, one a win.
- Win: Two Thirty Five 5/2
- Show: Nepal Up 12/1
Picks for Churchill Downs Race 8
This is an allowance race for fillies and mares three years old and upward running a distance of one mile on turf for a purse of $87,000.
Whichever horse Florent Geroux rides in this race, bet it to win. Barring scratches and/or a switch to the main track, Geroux is aboard the 5/2 favorite, More Than Unusual. This three-year-old filly moneyed three of her four career starts, winning one.
If Geroux rides the MTO/also-eligible Movie Moxie (3/1), then it’s Movie Moxie for the win. This three-year-old filly finished in the money all four of her career starts, winning one.
I don’t see any long-odds entries in this race — even in the also-eligibles — worth the risk for a show wager.
- Win: Movie Moxie 3/1 (if starts)
- Win: More Than Unusual 5/2 (otherwise)
Pick for Churchill Downs Race 9
This is a maiden special weight race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of six furlongs for a purse of $85,000.
I’m backing the 7/5 morning line favorite in this race — Fastly, ridden by Mitchell Murrill. This three-year-old colt moneyed four of his five career starts. Sure, there are some in this field with (slightly) better workout times, but workouts aren’t races, and Fastly leads this pack in getting results.
I know those two 50/1 longshots look tempting, but save your money, there are no long-odds entries in this race likely to finish in the money.
- Win: Fastly 7/5
More Wednesday Picks and Predictions
I found more underdogs and longshots at the other two tracks I reviewed for Wednesday:
- Parx Racing picks for November 11
- Mountaineer Racetrack picks for November 11