Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians – MLB, September 21, 2020

The red-hot Chicago White Sox (34-19) have surged into the top spot in the AL Central, thanks to victories in seven in their last 10 games. That has Chicago locked into a playoff spot and now they look to keep the Twins from catching them as the White Sox lead by 2.5 in the standings.

The Indians are currently the top team in the wild card race at 29-24. They hold a 2.0 game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays, and with seven games left in the season, they seem all but a lock to make the post-season.

The Indians are favored to win this game, given a -105 on the moneyline to win. Cleveland has won the last two meetings between the two teams, both in Cleveland so it would not be surprising to see them pull out the victory here.

The trend to watch for is the total. This is set at 8.5 and these two went over that number in the last contest, a 5-4 victory in extra innings by the Indians, but had gone under that number in the previous six contests.

Dane Dunning gets the start for Chicago, and he has been excellent, posting a 2-0 record and a 2.33 ERA in five starts. Dunning has been very good in his last two starts, allowing one earned run in 13 total innings.

What is making Dunning so good is that he does not hurt himself. The Chicago starter has allowed just nine total walks in 27.0 innings this season. Cleveland is fifth in the Majors in walks with 212, but they may not find the free pass an easy thing to come by in this contest.

Aaron Civale gets the start for Cleveland. He is 3-5 with a 3.80 ERA this season. In his 10 starts, the Cleveland right-hander has shown he has great stuff, walking only 13 in 64.0 innings, and he has struck out 59 batters.

He was outstanding in his last start, allowing two runs in six innings to the Chicago Cubs on September 16. That was a nice comeback after the righty had been rocked in his previous outing against the Royals.

I know the oddsmakers give a slight edge to the Indians in this game and I think their evaluation is misguided. For starters, the Indians are a terrible team offensively. Their biggest weapon has been getting on-base, and Dunning eliminates that by having good control. The Tribe is not drawing five or six walks in this game. In fact, they will be lucky if they get three.

Chicago is coming off a tough series where they lost two of three to Cincinnati, but they had won six of their previous seven games. That included winning three of four from the Twins after sweeping the Tigers. This team has definitely earned their chops in taking over the division lead.

This is a game that the White Sox are going to win, but it is not going to be by a big score. Both pitchers should look very good, but I give the slight edge to Dunning. He is already in playoff form and will lead the White Sox to victory.

The White Sox win, 4-2.