Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets – MLB, June 15, 2021

| June 15, 2021 7:39 am PDT

The Chicago Cubs fell to an old friend on Monday, with Jake Arrieta taking them out in a 5-2 win for the Mets. They’ll hope to get back on track on Tuesday, when they’re back in Citi Field to battle Taijuan Walker.

Walker has enjoyed a stellar 2021 season to this point, and will look to build on his strong start (5-2, 2.07 ERA). Alec Mills starts for the Cubs on the other side, and sports an unhealthy 6.08 ERA on the year.

New York plays host and looks like the aggressor in this spot, but bettors should turn over every stone before finalizing a bet. Let’s break this game down a bit more in today’s Cubs vs. Mets prediction and betting pick.

Cubs vs. Mets Odds for June 15

Cubs (+1.5)-155
Mets (-1.5)+135
Cubs to Win+130
Mets to Win-141
Over 8.5-115
Under 8.5-105

The Mets are reasonable favorites at home on Tuesday, and they can be had at a solid -141 at Sportsbetting.ag.

New York has been in fine form, as they come in at a strong 33-25, and are 6-4 over their last 10 games. They have been especially good at home (18-6), so the pricing makes sense as this game goes down at Citi Field.

Chicago offers clear value as a +130 road dog. The Cubs still stand atop the NL Central at 38-28, and are also 6-4 over their last 10 contests. They’re not quite as reliable (14-18) on the road, though.

The game total is perfectly passable. New York has not been a very explosive offense this year, but the Cubs have generated over 300 runs already. It will be tough to know which way to lean here, though, as New York’s offense has the far better matchup in this spot.

Cubs vs. Mets Game Preview

The Mets clearly win the pitching edge here. Taijuan Walker has been elite for the Mets in 2021, and he’s somehow been even better at home.

He’s allowed just four runs in five starts (1.23 ERA) at Citi Field, and has yet to give up a homer here. Opponents own a collective .167 OBA, too, and he was serviceable (7 Ks, two earned runs) in nearly four innings of work the last time he faced the Cubs.

Chicago’s lineup has been productive on the year, but they’ve been a bit banged up. The good news? They should get shortstop Javier Baez (thumb) back in the starting lineup on Tuesday.

Walker is most vulnerable from the left side, which could actually be a problem here when you factor in Anthony Rizzo and Joc Pederson. Rizzo sports a high walk rate and low whiff rate, and both of these guys can go yard.

On the other side is Mills, who needs to be inducing ground balls to have a chance most times out. He surely benefits from the park and New York’s frequently stalling offense, of course.

That said, Mills has been bad on the road (8.76 ERA), hasn’t missed bats, and has had major issues keeping lefties in check. New York can throw a few at him, including the talented Francisco Lindor.

Ultimately, I think it’s clear that the Mets have the overall edge, but both starting pitchers could have some obstacles to overcome.

My Pick for Cubs vs. Mets

Pick
  • Cubs to Win
    +130

Betting on baseball can often just be about getting on the right side of variance. Should the Cubs have been dominated by Arrieta yesterday? No way.

They also probably shouldn’t be able to abuse Walker in this park, but they do have one of the more explosive offenses in baseball.

Chicago has to keep winning, too. They’re currently tied for first place in the NL Central, and they get a nice little boost with the return of Baez. The matchup favors the Mets slightly, but I prefer New York’s upside and betting value here.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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