Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies – MLB, August 4th, 2021

The Chicago Cubs had a fire sale at the 2021 MLB trade deadline, as they were trending in the wrong direction. It sent iconic players like Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant packing, as the team looks to the future.

Chicago is just 51-56 on the year and 4-6 over their last 10 games, so betting on them seems like quite the gamble these days. They do get a park boost as they head to Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies, of course.

Bettors will want to know if it’s enough to back the Cubs at the top MLB betting sites, or if another bet stands out. Let’s find out in Wednesday’s Cubs vs. Rockies betting pick and prediction.

I thought I was going to come into this breakdown 100% on the Rockies. They are favored, as they might have a bit more talent at this point, and have been tough to beat at home (33-20).

That said, they have a worse record (46-60), and are trending poorly (4-6 over last 10), just like the Cubs. Chicago has been woeful on the road (20-35), of course, so you’re either looking at that alluring +148 moneyline, or you’re banking on the home/away splits staying the course.

It isn’t always as simple as that, of course, as the matchup could tell a different story.

The game total is another way to go. Coors games are usually priced at 10+ runs, and given the suspect pitching, I totally get it. However, Chicago doesn’t have nearly the power in their lineup they did just days ago, and the Rockies are a bottom-5 home run offense.

Coors has been good for scoring (5th in park factor for runs), but it’s merely middle of the pack when it comes to the long ball this year. With the total at 11 or higher in some spots, that could give us something to think about.

The Rockies held onto Jon Gray at the deadline, because he’s easily their best pitcher. He’s been solid in 2021, piecing together a 3.62 ERA with a 7-6 record and 95 whiffs.

Gray has been at his best in this volatile park (5-2, 3.14 ERA), and opponents are only putting together a collective .169 OBA against him here.

Chicago’s current roster is best suited against righties like Gray, but it’s still not a lineup to fear. His strikeout and walk rates aren’t where you want them, but he’s also not giving up a ton of fly balls.

On the other side is Alec Mills, who makes bats miss at a worse rate than Gray (17%), and makes a living off of ground balls. That probably isn’t going to do him a lot of good here, plus he gets destroyed by left-handed bats.

Charlie Blackmon heads a solid crop of lefty sticks for the Rockies, while Ryan McMahon is another menace to deal with.

Overall, the Rockies are a bit more formidable offensively in this spot, and Gray gives Colorado the edge on the mound, as well.

The Cubs sure are alluring at their +148 price, but they also feel like a huge trap. They are banking on Patrick Wisdom to keep wielding a powerful stick, while bettors can’t assume Rafael Ortega will bust out three home runs each time out.

Chicago is a fine value try against an equally bad team and with a massive park boost, but the matchup isn’t favorable beyond that.

Gray has been good at home, too, and the Rockies have enough lefties to tattoo Mills early and often. The price isn’t exactly where I want it to be, but I like the Rockies at home at -160, and the Over is a fine secondary bet in this park.