Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown Betting Preview – UFC Fight Night (January 16, 2021)

| January 11, 2021 11:58 am PDT

Every now and again, the UFC gives fans a fun fight to enjoy.

This Saturday at UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar, Dana White and Sean Shelby will Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown at our feet. What a fight this would have been back in the day, huh? Still, the two fan favorites should put on a great show for us at Fight Island.

Fun is fun, but the ultimate question is this — can you make money betting on Condit vs. Brown?

The answer is yes. So, I’m going to walk you through the odds for Condit vs. Brown, as well as the best bets for the fight. I’ll then talk a little about why I believe that there is only one winner in this fight, explaining myself before I let you make your decision.

Let’s get started with my prediction for Condit vs. Brown and go from there.

Condit vs. Brown – Who Wins?

  • Carlos Condit by Decision

If this fight had happened around nine or ten years ago, I would have no doubts about picking Condit for the win.

In 2021, the gulf in class between both men is much slimmer, however. Age, mileage, and depreciation have affected both guys, with Condit’s fall from the top much more obvious than Brown’s.

Still, I’m predicting Condit beats Brown by decision. I’ll explain why once I’ve covered the odds and best bets for Condit vs. Brown.

Latest Condit vs. Brown Odds

Carlos Condit to Win-164
Matt Brown to Win+144

Condit’s odds to beat Brown are -164.

The fight is pretty much a toss-up, and the top UFC betting sites saw it this way when they priced both men at opening odds of -110. There is little between Condit and Brown, but keep reading, and I’ll give you my reasons for favoring “The Natural Born Killer” in this contest.

Brown’s odds to win at Fight Island are slightly more appealing (+144).

I guess, at first glance, there are a couple of factors to consider when classing “The Immortal” as the underdog. First, he is four years older than Condit at 40. Second, he is coming off a bruising loss to Miguel Baeza while Condit heads into this one off the back of a win over Court McGee.

There is little more to consider, however. But let’s take a look at the bets to place on Condit vs. Brown before we go any further.

Best Condit vs. Brown Bets

  • Condit to Win -163
  • Condit to Win by Decision +140
  • Brown to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission +240

Condit to Win (-163) is the first UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar bet I recommend.

Knowing the strengths and weaknesses of both guys, I believe Condit should have the upper hand in this one. Slightly.

This fight is probably closer to 60/40 in favor of the 36-year-old, and I have to agree with the oddsmakers here.

Condit to Win by Decision (+140) is the next bet to look at.

Not only is the former UFC interim welterweight champion bereft of power when compared to his pomp, but he hasn’t landed a submission win since locking in a guillotine against Carlo Prater in 2008.

Condit has 15 KO/TKOs, and 13 submission finishes in his career. The last of those stoppage wins came against Thiago Santos in 2015.

Brown to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+240) is worth thinking about.

A Muay Thai striker, Brown is especially dangerous in the clinch. His last two wins have come by way of stoppage, which includes that elbow strike KO over Diego Sanchez.

All of Brown’s last seven bouts have failed to go the distance.

That is something to ponder over when placing your bets on Condit vs. Brown. But I believe this fight will break that trend. Here’s why.

Why Condit Beats Brown

Two awesome fighters in their respective primes, Condit vs. Brown, would have been major news around ten years ago.

Yet, there is still a noticeable buzz among fans to see this bout. And that says a lot about the respect we have for these two warriors of the old school. The entertainment they have brought us over the years has not gone unnoticed.

But from a strictly gambling perspective, sentiment must take a backseat to logic. Any emotional connection you have towards either guy is a problem, as it will distract you from honing in on the best bets to place on Condit vs. Brown. You can read more about this in our guide to betting on UFC fights.

So, what do I make of this fight? Well, I think both men are tough enough to survive the storm cooked up by their opponent. At the same time, I don’t think that either fighter stands out as a surefire favorite. But I do believe that Condit holds the advantages here. And more than just in age and mileage.

Condit is ahead of Brown in almost every department that matters. He is a crisper striker, a better grappler, and has a higher fight IQ. He should edge this one on that profile alone.

My final prediction is Carlos Condit by way of a decision victory.

More UFC Fight Bets to Check Out

We have three big UFC events coming up over the next week.

But it doesn’t get any bigger than the return of Conor McGregor. The Irishman takes on Dustin Poirier in a scrap at 155-pounds, and I just cannot wait to see that.

First of all, we have the UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar card to look forward to this Saturday, January 16. And then things will end with UFC and the McGregor vs. Poirier rematch.

I got you covered for all three events via our UFC picks and UFC blog content. But I’ll leave you with a little taste of what’s to come below.

Enjoy the fights!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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