Betting Preview for Carlos Condit vs. Court McGee – UFC Fight Night, October 3, 2020

| September 29, 2020 1:18 pm PDT

This Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana card features one for the old school fans in Carlos Condit vs. Court McGee.

Condit is a former UFC interim welterweight champion, while McGee won The Ultimate Fighter 11 back in 2010. Both are regarded as past their best, but this could end up being a fun fight to watch.

Betting on Condit vs. McGee won’t be straightforward. In fact, it’s certainly one of the more difficult fights to call on the night. But hey, a pick is what you have come here for, and I’ll be giving you mine right now. After my pick, I’ll get down to the odds for Condit vs. McGee, the best bets, and close off with a little analysis of the matchup.

Care to join me? Cool. Let’s go.

Condit vs. McGee – Who Wins This Fight?

  • Court McGee by Decision

Carlos Condit is one of those fighters that brings that sense of UFC nostalgia.

Unfortunately, the version of Condit that we have today is far away from the one that knocked out Dan Hardy and beat Nick Diaz. In fact, “The Natural Born Killer” is 2-8 from his last ten fights and hasn’t won since stopping Thiago Alves in 2015.

McGee is 4-6 from his last ten fights, and 1-4 from his last five. But I think his style could win him this fight. More on that after we check the odds and best bets for Condit vs. McGee.

Latest Condit vs. McGee Odds

Carlos Condit to Win+110
Court McGee to Win-140

Condit comes in as the +110 underdog, marking the third time in a row he has not been favored in a fight. Given his recent record, that’s not surprising in the slightest.

This is the second time in five fights that McGee has come in as the favorite. Despite being priced at -140 with the top sites for UFC bets, McGee had opened as high as +120.

Best Bets for Condit vs. McGee

  • McGee to Win by Decision +140
  • McGee to Win -140
  • Fight to Go the Distance -225

McGee is yet to have scored a knockout in over ten years of fighting under the UFC banner. He has scored just the one submission, or two if you count his TUF win over Kris McCray in 2010.

Incredibly, 13 of his last 14 fights have ended in decisions. Given that Condit’s last KO came against Martin Kampmann in 2013, McGee to Win by Decision (+140) looks a great bet.

Of course, you can play the safe option and back McGee to Win (-140) if you believe that he can join Michael Chiesa, Alex Oliveira, and Demian Maia, who have earned finishes over Condit in his last four fights.

The ultra-safe option here would be the Fight to Go the Distance (-225) bet. If you are in two minds over who wins this fight — but can’t see either man earning a finish — this could be your bet.

Well, I don’t think this one will end inside the distance. I’m picking McGee to grind a decision out against Condit, and here’s why.

Why McGee Beats Condit

Both guys have faded significantly over the past few years. Condit is 36 and on a five-fight skid, while McGee is 1-4 from his last five. I covered that earlier, of course, but it’s not a bad thing to remind yourself of.

But get this. In over 13 years of competitive MMA — some of it at the highest level there is — Court McGee has been knocked out once. That’s one knockout from nine losses and 28 fights in total.

The guy that knocked McGee out is Santiago Ponzinibbio. There is absolutely no shame in that. But what this should help me prove to you is that McGee’s chin is solid. Not even Robert Whittaker could rock it.

With McGee’s attritional, grinding style, Condit is going to have problems. Despite being a hard-hitter at one point in his career, the 36-year-old doesn’t seem to have it anymore. If he can’t take McGee out, he’s going to find it very difficult to have much success. And I don’t see Condit stopping him.

I expect Court McGee to come forward, exert the pressure, and land takedowns against Condit and rack up the points. There is no other way I see this one going other than a unanimous decision win for “The Crusher.”

And that sucks for anyone hoping Nick Diaz will fight Condit in his comeback bout. Perhaps it could still happen, even if he loses? Well, I wouldn’t rule it out.

That’s a Wrap

So that’s my prediction in the books for Condit vs.McGee. The fight goes down at UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana at Fight Island on October 3, so make sure to check out the odds and best bets for Holm vs. Aldana if you are betting on the main event.

We are just weeks away from a colossal matchup between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje. Then, we have Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt to look forward to. You can find my betting previews for both events, below.

Enjoy the fights!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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