Cannonier vs. Gastelum Predictions and Picks for UFC Vegas 34

| August 16, 2021 11:14 am PDT

Jared Cannonier takes on Kelvin Gastelum at UFC Vegas 34 this Saturday, August 21, from the APEX in Las Vegas.

I’ve got the odds for the fight and will be walking you through those in this betting preview of the fight. Additionally, I’ll provide my predictions for Cannonier vs. Gastelum and the top picks for UFC 34’s main event.

This is a fight I certainly won’t be missing. The matchmaking here is on point, and it’s almost nailed on that this bout will go down as one of the best of the year. But as exciting as that sounds, it’s important not to get carried away when placing your bets on the fight.

Let’s get started with my Cannonier vs. Gastelum predictions before I break this one down for you.

Predictions for Cannonier vs. Gastelum

  • Winner and Method of Victory: Kelvin Gastelum by Decision

Like some, my initial pick for Cannonier vs. Gastelum was a win for “The Killa Gorilla.”

Before his lopsided points loss to Robert Whittaker in 2020, it seemed as though Cannonier was en route blasting through the promotion’s middleweight division. But “Bobby Knuckles” put a stop to that.

Gastelum was also completely outclassed by the former UFC middleweight champion in his last fight in April. This helps to make this fight even more interesting.

But I have my reasons in favor of why Gastelum beats Cannonier on the night. I’ll be sharing those with you a little later.

Before we go any further, let’s take a look at the Cannonier vs. Gastelum odds.

Analysis of the Odds for Cannonier vs. Gastelum

Jared Cannonier to Win-152
Kelvin Gastelum to Win+142

Cannonier’s odds to beat Gastelum come in at -152, having opened at -240 earlier this summer.

The fact that the line has moved so significantly strongly indicates what many of us were thinking to begin with — this is a much closer fight than some think.

The Texan is a big, strong middleweight contender. But he is unlikely to bully the hard-headed, super-tough 29-year-old.

The betting line for Cannonier vs. Gastelum is more accurately reflective of the fight we have on our hands and is unlikely to change much before it closes on Saturday night.

Odds for Gastelum to win against Cannonier are +142 down from +195 when the market opened.

Although he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations recently, the Californian is one of the best 185-pounders in the UFC.

He came close to halting Israel Adesanya’s ascension to the capstone of the middleweight pyramid in 2019 before dropping frustrating losses to Darren Till, Jack Hermansson, and, of course, Whittaker.

Breaking Down Cannonier vs. Gastelum

Cannonier Gastelum
Record 13-5 16-7-0-1 (NC)
Age 37 29
Height 5’11 5’9″
Reach 77.5″ 71.5″

Cannonier’s odds make him the favorite to win this fight. 

But although he is the larger man, he is also eight years older than Gastelum. He has a significant advantage of six inches in reach, which is worth taking into account. With that said, his opponent has never struggled with rangier fighters solely on account of their length.

This matchup is an exciting prospect for fans because of the stylistic tendencies of both men. Cannonier is a wrecking ball of a striker that prefers to take the fight to his opponent. Although slightly shorter and boxier, Gastelum is a fighter with a granite chin that likes to sit in the pocket and tee off.

A dangerous counter-puncher, the younger man will invariably catch his opponent with heavy shots throughout the fight. He is the better grappler of the two and, considering Cannonier’s stint at both heavyweight and light heavyweight, the closest of the pair to a natural middleweight.

Cannonier has thus far failed to beat a southpaw as talented as Gastelum. This could make the winner of The Ultimate Fighter 17 an even tougher opponent for the Killa Gorilla.

Top Picks for Cannonier vs. Gastelum

Fight Over 4.5 Rounds-105
Gastelum to Win+142
Gastelum to Win by Decision+200

I gave you my prediction for Cannonier vs. Gastelum a little earlier. 

Both guys are as tough as they come, but I see the Californian edging out his man in a thrilling five-round fight. The top bet for Gastelum-Cannonier is the former to win, but there are options on either side of that pick to consider.

The first is for the fight to go over the 4.5 round marker. A bet of $105 nets you a profit of $100, and I can’t recommend many bets better than that.

If you’re willing to stick with my pick for Gastelum to beat Cannonier by decision, you can get +200 with our recommended UFC betting sites. It’s arguably the most tempting of the top bets for UFC Vegas 34 and most definitely worth considering.

But with all that could happen in this bout, I’d play it safe here and pick Gastelum to win on the moneyline at +142.

More UFC Vegas 34 Betting Advice

The moneyline odds for Kelvin Gastelum to beat Jared Cannonier are good enough to take ahead of the main event this Saturday.

I believe the younger man’s tricky southpaw angles and solid wrestling will edge him to victory on the judges’ scorecards this Saturday in what should be one of the top bouts of the year.

You can find more UFC Vegas 34 predictions, picks, and betting advice below.

Good luck!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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