Bundesliga Predictions and Best Bets – April 9-12, 2021

| April 9, 2021 2:23 am PDT

Bayern beat RB Leipzig away from home – without the injured Robert Lewandowski – and virtually ended the league title race for this season. Julian Nagelsmann’s side is now seven points behind the leaders with just seven games to go. It seems unlikely that Bayern will allow anyone to stop it from becoming Bundesliga champions for the ninth year in a row.

The last club other than Bayern that won the league is Borussia Dortmund, but its season is quickly unraveling as it went down to Eintracht Frankfurt at the weekend. The Eagles now enjoy a seven-point gap over Dortmund and should be good for the last Champions League place.

There is still a lot happening at the foot of the table as well. Matchday 28 might be good for a few clubs, but it is unlikely to decide anything quite yet. There are nine games in all this weekend, and I’ll be taking a look at all of them. I will also be picking out three of the best bets to consider this week in the German top flight.

Arminia Bielefeld to Beat Freiburg

Matchday 28 kicks off at Bielefeld on Friday, and the home side can be fairly confident of taking something from the game. It might have only been a draw with Mainz last weekend, but it was away from home, and it took points away from a relegation rival. That and the win over Leverkusen – as well as just a narrow defeat to Leipzig recently – suggests that there should still be some hope of staying up.

Freiburg is comfortably in mid-table and unlikely to trouble either end of the table now that there are so few games left to play.

That probably suits head coach, Christian Streich, as his side has lost three of the last four and has most of his attacking options absent this week through injury.

There are some suspension worries as well after the loss to Gladbach last week. It could be a good week to forget quickly for Freiburg.

Bayern Munich to Beat Union Berlin

Hansi Flick has an alarming number of players missing this weekend but will feel that. With the Bundesliga title just about sewn up now, it is the Champions League that he needs his best players ready for anyway.

The home defeat to PSG has made the second leg in Paris next week all-important, and that could make for a second-string eleven taking the field on Saturday. It didn’t seem to be a problem last week against Leipzig, though.

Union Berlin’s season is far from over, so we should expect Urs Fischer’s side to really go for it at the Allianz Arena. He will be disappointed that his side didn’t overcome Hertha in the Berlin derby last weekend, especially after leading after just ten minutes. Die Eisernen dominated that game, and it will be a little worrying that they were unable to take all three points at home. That lack of firepower up front might come back to haunt the club on Saturday too.

Eintracht Frankfurt to Beat Wolfsburg

Frankfurt beat Dortmund last weekend to take a huge step towards qualifying for the Champions League and could improve its chances even further by beating Wolfsburg this Saturday. Andre Silva scored the late winner at the Westfalenstadion and will be the main threat once again this weekend. But there are attacking options throughout the Frankfurt side, making Wolfsburg’s task even more difficult.

Wolfsburg has its own goal-getter, of course.

Wout Weghorst already has 22 in all competitions for the season – although he didn’t get on the scoresheet in last weekend’s narrow victory over Koln.

With an 11-point gap between Wolfsburg and fifth-placed Dortmund, it looks like both these clubs will be lining up for the famous tournament anthem next season.

Borussia Monchengladbach to Beat Hertha Berlin

Hertha boss Pal Dardai would probably much rather have faced Monchengladbach a couple of weeks ago when the club was still in the middle of the fall out of Marco Rose’s announcement about leaving in the summer. But he now needs to keep his expensively assembled team in the right frame of mind to capitalize on the draw with Union in the Berlin derby last weekend. Relegation is still a big worry for the capital city club – but getting anything from this one will be difficult.

That’s because the Foals have gotten somewhere back to their usual form in the last few weeks – and did well to come back from a goal down to beat Freiburg last Saturday. Marcus Thuram scored both goals in that victory and showed from the front how the team has woken up after almost two months of disappointing results. Another win on Sunday at the Olympiastadion could even put Gladbach back in the running for a European place.

RB Leipzig to Beat Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen should be safe from any relegation fears, but there are always some strange results towards the end of a season. Florian Kohfeldt will be painfully aware that his side needs to pick up as many points as possible. Josh Sargent returns for this one after missing the defeat to Stuttgart last week. The US international will need to be on top form to reverse his team’s three-game losing streak, though.

One slither of hope for Bremen is that Leipzig will be without Dayot Upamecano. The Bayern-bound defender was suspended after picking up a fifth yellow card in the defeat at his future employers’ hands. That loss has all but ended any real hopes of Leipzig taking the Bundesliga crown, and Julian Nagelsmann will have to make do with another shot at the Champions League next season – especially after this year’s campaign ended at the round of 16.

Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund to Draw

Stuttgart would move just one point behind Dortmund if it were able to win this one on Saturday. That would seem to be a tall order without the influential Silas, who is probably out for the remainder of the season. He was not needed for the 1-0 win over Werder Bremen last weekend, as Stuttgart continued to overachieve in its first season back in the Bundesliga. European qualification might be asking too much, but a good result might get a few people interested.

Dortmund was almost glad of just a narrow defeat to Manchester City in the Champions League on Tuesday after another poor performance in the league last weekend. The 2-1 loss to Frankfurt essentially ended any hopes of finishing in the top four – and that could mean that a visibly frustrated Erling Haaland might not be around next season. He will be the main threat again this Sunday, but Jadon Sancho continues to be absent – and that might mean Dortmund has to make do with just a point.

Schalke and Augsburg to Draw

Schalke is 15 points from safety – and 13 from even a relegation playoff game – but is surely only playing for a scrap of pride now.

Even that has been hard to come by this season as the Royal Blues have looked largely woeful and gotten through five head coaches.

A Klaus-Jan Huntelaar goal was not enough to inspire a comeback against Leverkusen last weekend, but that goal might spur the side into something better this Sunday.

Augsburg is the opponent desperate not to become just the second team to lose to Schalke this season – and, in all honesty, Heiko Herrlich’s side should be fine on that front. But it will probably be missing striker Florian Neiderlechner, so Andre Hahn will have another chance to add to the goal that he scored in the win against Hoffenheim last weekend. Augsburg probably only needs a few more points to ensure safety, so even just a draw might be considered a positive on Sunday.

Mainz to Deat Koln

This is a huge game at the bottom of the table as the winner will have a big advantage – psychologically and points-wise – in the battle for safety this season. Koln narrowly lost to Wolfsburg last week but has now gone seven games without a win and cannot afford to keep on dropping points, especially to such a close rival. The good news for head coach Markus Gisdol is that Sebastian Andersson may be fit to return up front.

But it is Mainz that has looked the most impressive of the group of clubs at the foot of the table in recent weeks. New head coach Bo Svensson has his team playing with a renewed sense of belief and spirit, and that has seen the 05ers go unbeaten in its last four and losing just once in the last eight. There have been some less than convincing draws in that time, including the stalemate at home against Arminia Bielefeld last Saturday, but Mainz could end up remaining in the top flight for next season.

Bayer Leverkusen to Beat Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim has probably done just enough to stay up this season but has now lost three games in a row and will still be nervously checking over its shoulder at the teams below. Augsburg had already scored twice in just over 20 minutes last weekend, and Sebastian Hoeness’s side never really looked like getting back in the game, only scoring a consolation goal in the 86th minute. Its fortunes may not improve much on Monday.

Bayer Leverkusen is enjoying a new head coach in the form of interim manager Hannes Wolf. After a run of six games that only brought one win, Peter Bosz was let go to give the new boss a fighting chance of helping the club qualify for Europe this season. Leverkusen had been as high as third as recently as the end of January but will now have to make do with a place in the Europa League or the Europa Conference League at best. Three points here will help with that.

My Top Bundesliga Picks for April 9-12, 2021

Here are my three picks in the Bundesliga for matchday 28.

Arminia Bielefeld to Beat Freiburg3.20
Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund to Draw4.00
Schalke and Augsburg to Draw3.40

I have avoided the clubs at the top of the table this week and went for three picks that seem of good value due to the circumstances surrounding at least one of the clubs in each game. My first pick is for Arminia Bielefeld to overcome Freiburg – and it is the home side’s need for points that have pushed me into thinking that Freiburg might not be as up for the fight.

Next up, I have Stuttgart extending Dortmund’s misery this season. There may be no Silas to score the wonder goals, but the home side has looked consistently good this season and seems to be exactly the kind of team that can upset Dortmund. I think the Champions League tie with Manchester City will be on the visiting team’s minds – and even Haaland won’t be able to inspire a win away from home.

My final Bundesliga betting pick for matchday 28 is for Schalke to pick up a rare point at home to Augsburg. The Royal Blues have looked terrible for most of the season, but I would not be surprised to see them pull out a relatively good run of results now. An Augsburg already just about safe could well allow the bottom-placed team to snatch a point in the early game on Sunday.

Dan Roberts
Dan Roberts

Dan Roberts is an experienced freelance writer specialising in sports and sports betting. He is particularly knowledgeable about world soccer, but also writes about football, basketball and cricket.

As a fan of Nottingham Forest, New York Knicks, Minnesota Vikings and New York Mets, Dan has not had much to celebrate recently.

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