Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos – NFL, Week 15, 2020

The Bills are on an upward curve, having won six of their last seven matches, with the latest win being against the then leading AFC team, the Steelers.

The Broncos have won two of their last five games but have left it too late to make any run to the playoffs.

The Bills edge the recent head to head record three to two. Oddly enough, the home team on the day has won five matches in a row dating back to 2011.

The Bills are rightful favorites here, and the spread seems about right. Let’s break things down to see where the best pick comes from.

The Bills are on cloud nine following a comfortable win last time out against AFC rivals the Steelers. That win made it three wins in a row and six wins from their last seven games.

On the road, they have won four of their six matches, but they have only posted back-to-back wins once this season, which came in their first two away fixtures against the Dolphins and the Raiders.

Their away matches have tended to be high-scoring affairs, excluding their 18-10 wins over the Jets. This easily contributed by the outstanding talent that is Stefon Diggs, who is the third-highest receiver in the game this season. 

It’s odd as when you look at the Bills stats for the season, absolutely nothing stands out. This, to me, is the sign of a great TEAM. They had been going under the reader slightly, but after their win against Pittsburgh, they are certainly being talked about as real championship contenders. They are homing in on the AFC East title, and a win here would surely cement the division.

The Broncos had a decent win away to Carolina last time out, but they have failed to win back to back games since they beat the Jets and the Patriots back at the beginning of October.

At home, they have a worse record than they do on the road, having only won two of their six games to date. However, they should take confidence that the home team on the day has won this fixture the last five times that it has been played. Not only that, all five wins have been won by a touchdown or more.

Excluding from their win against the Panthers, their biggest issue has been scoring points as of late as prior to that match, they had posted scores of 16, 3, 20, and 12. They are averaging under 20 points per game, which is giving their defense way too much work to do. The Broncos have the worst passing completion rate in the league, which hasn’t helped this at all.

Speaking of their defense, they currently have five cornerbacks out over the last two weeks, which will have Stefon Diggs licking his chops as the prospect of facing a depleted team. Prior to losing them, they already had the second-lowest tackle count in the league, so this will hurt them even further.

The Broncos are a funny side and tend to through up a shock result when you least expect it. However, I can’t see there being a shock here given their injury and suspension worries and the fact that the Bills are confident right now and have the incentive of trying to wrap up the AFC East. The Bill’s last four wins have come by margins greater than a touchdown, as has their last three wins against the Broncos, which includes the last two played. So take the Bills to cover the spread.