Brazil vs. Spain – Tokyo Olympics Men’s Soccer Final (August 7, 2021)

| August 6, 2021 6:39 am PDT

The Brazil men’s soccer team has a chance to win back-to-back Olympic golds. For that to happen, the Selecao needs to beat La Roja on Saturday at the International Stadium in Yokohama.

Brazil is entering the gold medal game as a slight favorite in bookmakers’ eyes, although a super-close battle is expected.

The reason isn’t just that Brazil and Spain are very similar in terms of player quality. It’s also because these teams seem to struggle to get a win in the 90 minutes.

For example, two of the five games Brazil played at the 2020 Olympics finished in a 0-0 draw. It’s even more drastic when it comes to Spain’s performances in Japan – only one of this team’s games did not finish in a draw in the regular time!

Are we going to see the Olympic final going to the extra time or one team will grab the gold earlier? Let’s find out!

Previewing the Olympic Men’s Soccer Final

Brazil is the nation with the most Olympic medals won in this sport. However, only one of those is gold – the one won five years ago. Spain also has one gold medal, won back in 1992.

Another similarity between these two teams is that they both came to the final after a very tough semifinal. Brazil advanced to the final after beating Mexico on penalties; Spain beat Japan thanks to Marco Asensio’s beautiful curler in the 25th minute of the extra time.

Both Brazil and Spain struggled to beat their quarterfinal opponents as well. Brazil got a 1-0 win against Egypt, while Spain’s clash with Ivory Coast went to extra time. After 2-2 in the regular time, the Spanish scored another three goals. Before that match, Spain had only scored two goals in this year’s Olympiad.

This fact, however, doesn’t necessarily mean the Spanish aren’t very good in the final third. Instead, it means that their plan for this tournament is to make defense their priority.

As it turns out, that seems to be the right decision – Spain has conceded only three goals in regular time in the five previous games.

It’s literally the same case when Brazil is concerned, the team that conceded two against Germany and one against Saudi Arabia.

Led by their 38-year-old skipper Dani Alves, Brazil’s defense managed to keep a clean sheet in three games of the Olympics.

Brazil vs. Spain Betting Odds

Brazil to Win2.70
The Draw2.85
Spain to Win3.05
Over 2.5 Goals2.88
Under 2.5 Goals1.44

From my experience as a bettor, there aren’t many games that come with odds shorter than 3.00 on the draw.

In fact, that wasn’t the case in any of the 30 games played at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics so far (the shortest was 3.10 in the Round 2 game between Romania and Japan).

But this one does have the draw odds of under 3.00! This suggests that such a scenario is very likely to happen.

Of course, this is the final of the Olympics and if a draw happens, the game will go to the extra time. And if the score doesn’t change, a penalty shootout will decide the winner.

So, who’s going to win the gold medal and who’s leaving Japan with silver? Judging by the betting odds, Brazil’s chances look slightly better.

At the moment, the odds on Brazil winning the gold are 2.88, while Spain is priced at 3.30.

My Brazil vs. Spain Betting Prediction

  • The Draw

If I were the head coach of Brazil/Spain, I wouldn’t want to risk anything in the final. Instead of attacking, I’d tell my boys to focus on keeping the net safe. That’s exactly what I expect from both of these teams!

Both coaches are likely to go with a defensive-minded strategy for Saturday’s clash, with four at the back and several defensive midfielders in the center of the pitch. I expect to see a big midfield battle, with a limited number of goal chances on either end.

That said, probably the safest bet for this game is under 2.5 goals. Still, the odds (1.44) aren’t too attractive, which is why my pick has to be the draw (2.85).

To wrap things up, I need to answer the most important question – who will win the gold medal?

It’s literally 50-50 in my eyes, but the odds of 3.30 on Spain look too good to miss.

Zarko Naric
Zarko Naric

Zarko Naric – the World's Greatest Sportswriter, according to his grandma.

Zarko started writing for in 2019, covering sports like soccer, tennis, and basketball,  as well as some more niche sports like cycling, for example.

In addition to writing news, picks, and blog pieces focused on sports, Zarko’s also been covering politics, TV/music contests, and so on.

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