Brazil vs. Peru – 2021 Copa America Semifinal

| July 5, 2021 9:00 am PDT

After beating Peru 4-0 in its second group game of Copa America 2021, Brazil now faces the same opponent to claim a place in the final. This is a real David vs. Goliath match-up, with the Selecao having the benefit of playing in its own Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Rio.

Peru has improved markedly since that early thrashing but will still come into this game as a massive underdog. I’m going to take a look at both teams – and the latest odds – and offer my betting pick for Brazil vs. Peru on Monday.

Can Brazil Make the 2021 Copa America Final on Home Soil?

The quarterfinal against Chile was harder than Tite and his Brazil players were probably expecting, but now only Peru stands in the way of yet another Copa America final. Brazil actually beat Peru in 2019 to take the title.

Brazil started this tournament in an explosive manner, easily beating Venezuela and Peru without conceding a goal. But there was a closer game against Colombia – and a draw with Ecuador while fielding a second-string team – before the last eight matchup with Chile.

Gabriel Jesus’ wild head-high challenge on Eugenio Mena in that game resulted in a red card that keeps him out of this one. But there is more than enough talent up front for Brazil to test the Peru defense and keeper.

Is There Any Way Peru Can Beat Brazil?

Peru rallied after that big loss to Brazil in its opening Copa America 2021 game to win two and draw one of its remaining group games. That meant that Ricardo Gareca’s side faced Paraguay in the last eight in an action-packed game that saw both sides have a man sent off.

Although Peru went a goal down early on, they had taken back the lead before halftime when Paraguay lost its goal-scoring captain to the first red card. There were only seconds on the clock when Peru conceded the third equalizer. With no extra time, penalties were needed to make the final four.

Peru missed two of its own spot-kicks but eventually made it through to Monday’s semifinal. But it will have to do without influential winger Andre Carrillo who was sent off in the second half. That leaves more pressure on Italian-born striker Gianluca Lapadula to take any chances that fall his way against Brazil.

Brazil vs. Peru Latest Odds

  • Brazil to Win: -425
  • The Draw: +510
  • Peru to Win: +1500

Only Ecuador has failed to succumb to Brazil during this tournament and that was only because Tite fielded his backup players to rest his stars in the final group game.

Now we have gone deeper into the competition, the betting sites see no chance for Peru, making Brazil a very big favorite. It is very difficult to argue against that position.

My Prediction and Pick for Brazil vs. Peru

I’ve gotten all the way through this preview without even mentioning Neymar. But it is the PSG forward that will make the most of the chances for the hosts against Peru – as he has been doing in every game of this tournament.

Peru dug in deep against Paraguay and played a very physical game to make it to this stage. It will probably need to repeat that tactic against Brazil – but will need to watch out for more red cards against some very skillful opponents.

A bet on Brazil to win this semifinal on Monday is not going to bring in much in the way of winning returns. But I can’t see Peru being able to stop Tite’s side from dominating the game. This might not end with the same scoreline as the earlier group game – but the result will be the same.

Pick
  • Brazil to to Win
    -425
Dan Roberts
Dan Roberts

Dan Roberts is an experienced freelance writer specialising in sports and sports betting. He is particularly knowledgeable about world soccer, but also writes about football, basketball and cricket.

As a fan of Nottingham Forest, New York Knicks, Minnesota Vikings and New York Mets, Dan has not had much to celebrate recently.

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