Big 12 Predictions and Best Bets – November 14, 2020
It’s a light week in the Big 12 with only four teams in action.
- TCU vs. West Virginia
- Baylor vs. Texas Tech
However, both of these matchups are virtual toss-ups that could very well go down to the wire. Let’s take a peek at each game individually and come up with Big 12 predictions for Saturday.
TCU vs. West Virginia Predictions
- West Virginia to beat TCU
- Predicted Total: 41-45 points
The Mountaineers held Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns offense in check; they just weren’t able to muster up enough plays on offense. Coming back home to Morgantown to face another tough defense represents a stiff test – but it’s one that I believe that Neal Brown and his men can pass.
West Virginia not only stifled Texas last time out, but they held Kansas State to 10 points in the game before that. We’re talking about one of the truly elite defensive units in America.
West Virginia: Only power-five team with a 90+ grade in coverage AND run defense pic.twitter.com/sjwZ6z81L0— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 10, 2020
Now consider that the Horned Frogs have thrown a total of six touchdown passes in six games. My gut tells me TCU will be the team struggling to muster up enough points this time around.
Baylor vs. Texas Tech Predictions
- Baylor to beat Texas Tech
- Predicted Total: 56-60 points
It’s been tough sledding for Dave Aranda five games into his tenure in Waco. The good news is Baylor has a golden opportunity to snap their four-game skid Saturday in Lubbock.
The Red Raiders like to air the pigskin out, but they do an awful job defending the pass (301.1 passing yards/game allowed).
Flip the coin and the Bears greatest strength happens to be defending the pass (188.4 passing yards/game allowed). On offense, Coach Aranda leans on the right arm of Charlie Brewer.
Add that up and you quickly see this is a bad matchup for Texas Tech. That theory is confirmed via ESPN’s Matchup Predictor – an advanced tool that has predicted Baylor to win this game more than 67% of the time.
Big 12 Picks for November 14
- West Virginia (-3) -110
- Baylor (+1.5) -110
Now let’s convert these Big 12 predictions into betting picks.
I’ve been backing West Virginia all season long and have no plans to stop this weekend. The Mountaineers have been excellent against the spread (5-2) and should be able to overmatch the Horned Frogs at Milan Puskar Stadium.
I would have endorsed Baylor as one of my upset picks for college football this week, although none of the sites were offering “plus-money” on the Bears. Instead, I’ll happily lay -110 on Baylor (+1.5) in a game I expect the “Green and Gold” to win.
How do you feel about these predictions for the Big 12?
Don’t forget, there are six B1G games taking place on Saturday as well.