Top Betting Picks for the TOUR Championship 2021

| August 30, 2021 1:22 pm PDT

“Patty Ice” has arrived. With glaciers running through his veins, Patrick Cantlay persevered at the BMW Championship in a six-hole playoff for the ages. The newly-minted #4 player in the world now heads to Atlanta atop the leaderboard – first in line to claim the $15 million grand prize.

Remember, the PGA Tour has implemented a “starting strokes leaderboard” for the TOUR Championship based on current positions in the FedEx Cup standings.

2021 TOUR Championship Leaderboard (w Starting Strokes)
Starting At Player
-10 Patrick Cantlay
-8 Tony Finau
-7 Bryson DeChambeau
-6 Jon Rahm
-5 Cameron Smith
-4 Justin Thomas, Harris English, Abraham Ancer, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns
-3 Colin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland, Louis Oosthuizen, Dustin Johnson
-2 Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Brooks Koepka
-1 Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, Stewart Cink, Joaquin Niemann, Scottie Scheffler
E Daniel Berger, Erik van Rooyen, Sergio Garcia, Billy Horschel, Patrick Reed

You can bet on the TOUR Championship winner, but you can also bet on who will shoot the lowest score over the 72 holes. For example, Dustin Johnson won the TOUR Championship/FedEx Cup in 2020, although it was Xander Schauffele who ended the week atop the “72-hole leaderboard.”

Considering the former market, I’ll start with my best bets for the TOUR Championship.

Best Bets for the TOUR Championship

Of the top four finishers at the 2020 TOUR Championship, three of those players started the week at least seven under-par. It makes sense not to stray too far from the top when looking for the best bets for the TOUR Championship.

Patrick Cantlay (+400)

Much has been made about Cantlay’s heroic putting performance at Caves Valley – particularly down the stretch when he holed must-make after must-make. Patrick gained a PGA Tour-record 14.58 strokes on the greens, and that doesn’t even count the putts he holed during the six-hole playoff.

Cantlay jarred 61% of his putts from between 10-20’ at the BMW Championship, per Justin Ray. The PGA Tour average from that range is under 26%.

With that being said, the rest of his game was also firing on all cylinders. Cantlay’s driver was automatic and he finished 2nd for the week in GIR. His 31 birdies (also made an eagle) in 72 holes were one shy of the PGA Tour record.

Jon Rahm (+400)

Since his forced withdrawal at the Memorial, Jon Rahm’s stayed red-hot (1st-7th-3rd-3rd-9th). He’s created sincere separation at the top of the OWGR and is the heavy favorite to shoot the lowest 72-hole score at all of the best golf sportsbooks online.

Despite beginning the week solo-4th and four back, the top sites installed Rahm as a co-favorite with Cantlay to hoist the hardware on Sunday.

The PGA Tour’s leader in par-3 and par-5 scoring average also leads the tour in birdie average and SG: Total. Undeniably the top dog, Rahmbo’s current form is too dazzling to ignore.

Justin Thomas (+1600)

Lurking right behind Rahm on the 72-hole TOUR Championship odds sheet is Justin Thomas. The 2017 FedEx Cup champ has repeatedly voiced his affinity for this layout and the course conditions. JT’s fondness of this track has translated to plenty of success – Justin registered a trio of 66s last year at East Lake Golf Club en route to a runner-up finish.

After playing his final 26 holes in Baltimore nine-under-par and without a bogey, Thomas is in a perfect position to strike. Look for Justin to make up ground quickly and insert his name into the mix.

TOUR Championship Picks – Value Plays

For those seeking a little more upside with their TOUR Championship betting picks, I’ll toss out three more names to keep tabs on.

Dustin Johnson (+2000)

Don’t look now, but Dustin Johnson is quietly rounding into form. Top-10s in three of his last five starts are emphasized by vast improvements on the greens

Returning to his TaylorMade black spider, DJ gained a substantial 5.815 strokes putting at Caves Valley (7th in the field) and ranked inside the top-10 in putts per GIR (1.615).

Dustin also clocked in 4th in SG: Off-the-Tee while carding a whopping 27 birdies (2nd-most in the field).

Cameron Smith (+2500)

Starting the week five back is not insurmountable. Just ask Rory McIlroy, the 2019 FedEx Cup champ who arrived at East Lake at -5 in the identical position as Cameron Smith.

Cam’s tendency to be a bit erratic with his driver doesn’t go unnoticed, but his brilliance on the greens can’t be overlooked.

Smith leads the PGA Tour in one-putt % and sits 4th in three-putt avoidance.

Add it all up and he’s the PGA Tour leader in putting average.

Should I mention that only Jon Rahm makes more birdies per round, or should I sum it all up and tell you Cam is 59-under-par during his last 16 rounds of competition?

Rolling the dice on this man at +2500 at MyBookie could end up paying huge dividends.

Sam Burns (+3500)

After touting Jon Rahm and Cam Smith – the two men sitting 1st and 2nd in birdie average – I may as well give a shoutout to one of the golfers sitting third in this category.

PGA Tour Birdie Average 20202-21
Player Birdies Per Rounds
Jon Rahm 4.51
Cameron Smiths 4.50
Sam Burns 4.49
Bryson DeChambeau 4.49
Rory McIlroy 4.49

Firmly on Steve Stricker’s radar to be a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup, Burns saunters into his first TOUR Championship sizzling. He’s fired 64 or lower nine times this season – nobody else on Tour can claim more than six such rounds.

The 2021 Valspar Championship winner is -45 in his last three starts combined (2nd-21st-8th); he’s slept on the lead more times than any other player on the PGA Tour this season.

Between locking up these six TOUR Championship picks, expect to be in for some serious sweats come Sunday afternoon.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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